Mi columna del 2 de marzo en el Diario "El Universo"
- OMS advierte sobre una posible pandemia mundial del coronavirus COVID-19
- La economía china y mundial sufren un impacto
- Caen precios de petróleo y otras materias primas
- Se dispara el “riesgo país” del Ecuador
https://twitter.com/Luis_Fierro_Eco/status/1234355798865850368?s=20
Monday, March 2, 2020
Thursday, February 6, 2020
Ecuador and climate change
Ecuador and climate change
By Luis Fierro Carrion (@Luis_Fierro_Eco)
(English translation of the article published in "El Universo" on February 6, 2020)
The average global temperature registered in 2019 its second highest level in history, barely tenths of a grade below the record set in 2016. The last five years and the last decade have also been the hottest since records are kept.
Global warming is due to the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane gas. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 350 parts per million in 1990 to 411 in 2019.
The increase in GHG emissions is mainly due to the use of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal, etc.), and to a lesser extent to deforestation, agricultural and industrial activities.
We have already reached an increase of 1.1 degrees Celsius with respect to the pre-industrial average temperature, and in the Paris Agreement the countries of the world promised to restrict the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees, or at most to 2 degrees.
However, in accordance with the commitments assumed by the countries (through the “Nationally Determined Contributions” or NDC), an increase of at least 3 degrees C is projected until the year 2100.
With the temperature increase that has already occurred, we have begun to suffer catastrophic effects:
- Massive fires in Australia, Brazil, Bolivia, the United States and other countries.
- Rise of the sea levels (due to the melting of the ice at the poles and Greenland). This already threatens several countries and regions that are a few meters above sea level, such as Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Bangladesh or the states of Florida and Louisiana in the United States.
- Fluctuations in the rain, which causes droughts in some regions and floods in others.
- Melting glaciers and snow-capped mountains.
- Intensification of hurricanes and tropical cyclones.
- Increase of epidemics of tropical diseases (dengue, Zika, malaria, etc.).
- Expansion of invasive species and extinction of endemic species.
Although Ecuador generates only 0.11% of global emissions (less than its participation in the global population or GDP), in the Paris Agreement all countries expressed their commitment to reduce their GHG emissions.
In Ecuador's climate plan proposal (NDC), there was no commitment for an absolute emission reduction, only sector programs and policies, such as the increase in renewable energy generation or reforestation plans (despite which Ecuador is currently the country in Latin America that deforests the most, as a percentage).
Before the last presidential elections, I published, as part of an initiative of Grupo FARO and Ecuador Decide, “Promote Sustainable and Low-Emission Development, with Greater Resilience to Climate Change” (Grupo FARO, Quito, 2017).
In this document I proposed public policies to address the problem, such as:
- Ratification of the Paris Agreement (the current government did it).
- Reduction or elimination of fossil fuel subsidies (partially achieved in the governments of Correa and Moreno).
- Promote solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and small hydroelectric energy (large hydroelectric plants emit methane gas from their dams, especially in tropical areas).
- Promote greater energy efficiency.
- Provide incentives for electric vehicles and mass public transport (metro, tramways and electric buses).
- Promote actions to adapt to climate change, including more resilient infrastructure.
- Improve the management of solid waste, including the capture of methane gas for electricity generation.
- Constitute an investment fund to face climate change, which channels national and international resources (a small fund has been set up to replace the National Environmental Fund that former President Correa eliminated).
There are concessional, and even non-refundable, funds available to deal with climate change. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), CAF, the World Bank, the Green Climate Fund, the French Development Agency (AFD), the German Development Bank (KfW) and the European Investment Bank, among others, finance mitigation and adaptation programs and projects, and there are initiatives to channel these resources towards decentralized autonomous governments and the private sector. Banco Pichincha issued the first Green Bond in Ecuador, in 2019, with the support of IDB Invest, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Proparco (the private sector branch of AFD).
Original article in Spanish: https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2020/02/03/nota/7721430/ecuador-cambio-climatico
The graph shows the temperature anomalies in 2014-2018. Higher than normal temperatures are shown in red, and lower than normal temperatures are shown in blue.
By Luis Fierro Carrion (@Luis_Fierro_Eco)
(English translation of the article published in "El Universo" on February 6, 2020)
The average global temperature registered in 2019 its second highest level in history, barely tenths of a grade below the record set in 2016. The last five years and the last decade have also been the hottest since records are kept.
Global warming is due to the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane gas. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 350 parts per million in 1990 to 411 in 2019.
The increase in GHG emissions is mainly due to the use of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal, etc.), and to a lesser extent to deforestation, agricultural and industrial activities.
We have already reached an increase of 1.1 degrees Celsius with respect to the pre-industrial average temperature, and in the Paris Agreement the countries of the world promised to restrict the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees, or at most to 2 degrees.
However, in accordance with the commitments assumed by the countries (through the “Nationally Determined Contributions” or NDC), an increase of at least 3 degrees C is projected until the year 2100.
With the temperature increase that has already occurred, we have begun to suffer catastrophic effects:
- Massive fires in Australia, Brazil, Bolivia, the United States and other countries.
- Rise of the sea levels (due to the melting of the ice at the poles and Greenland). This already threatens several countries and regions that are a few meters above sea level, such as Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Bangladesh or the states of Florida and Louisiana in the United States.
- Fluctuations in the rain, which causes droughts in some regions and floods in others.
- Melting glaciers and snow-capped mountains.
- Intensification of hurricanes and tropical cyclones.
- Increase of epidemics of tropical diseases (dengue, Zika, malaria, etc.).
- Expansion of invasive species and extinction of endemic species.
Although Ecuador generates only 0.11% of global emissions (less than its participation in the global population or GDP), in the Paris Agreement all countries expressed their commitment to reduce their GHG emissions.
In Ecuador's climate plan proposal (NDC), there was no commitment for an absolute emission reduction, only sector programs and policies, such as the increase in renewable energy generation or reforestation plans (despite which Ecuador is currently the country in Latin America that deforests the most, as a percentage).
Before the last presidential elections, I published, as part of an initiative of Grupo FARO and Ecuador Decide, “Promote Sustainable and Low-Emission Development, with Greater Resilience to Climate Change” (Grupo FARO, Quito, 2017).
In this document I proposed public policies to address the problem, such as:
- Ratification of the Paris Agreement (the current government did it).
- Reduction or elimination of fossil fuel subsidies (partially achieved in the governments of Correa and Moreno).
- Promote solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and small hydroelectric energy (large hydroelectric plants emit methane gas from their dams, especially in tropical areas).
- Promote greater energy efficiency.
- Provide incentives for electric vehicles and mass public transport (metro, tramways and electric buses).
- Promote actions to adapt to climate change, including more resilient infrastructure.
- Improve the management of solid waste, including the capture of methane gas for electricity generation.
- Constitute an investment fund to face climate change, which channels national and international resources (a small fund has been set up to replace the National Environmental Fund that former President Correa eliminated).
There are concessional, and even non-refundable, funds available to deal with climate change. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), CAF, the World Bank, the Green Climate Fund, the French Development Agency (AFD), the German Development Bank (KfW) and the European Investment Bank, among others, finance mitigation and adaptation programs and projects, and there are initiatives to channel these resources towards decentralized autonomous governments and the private sector. Banco Pichincha issued the first Green Bond in Ecuador, in 2019, with the support of IDB Invest, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Proparco (the private sector branch of AFD).
Original article in Spanish: https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2020/02/03/nota/7721430/ecuador-cambio-climatico
The graph shows the temperature anomalies in 2014-2018. Higher than normal temperatures are shown in red, and lower than normal temperatures are shown in blue.
Monday, February 3, 2020
El Ecuador y el Cambio Climático
El #Ecuador y el cambio climático | @eluniversocom
Mi segunda columna para el Diario “El Universo”.
El país puede obtener recursos concesionales y no-reembolsables para reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y para la adaptación.
Se debe impulsar:
- energía renovable
- eficiencia energética
- reforestación
- transporte eléctrico masivo
- mejorar el manejo de residuos
- infraestructura más resiliente
- fortalecer su plan climático para reducir emisiones
- otras políticas de mitigación y adaptación
https://twitter.com/luis_fierro_eco/status/1224303548441251840?s=21
Mi segunda columna para el Diario “El Universo”.
El país puede obtener recursos concesionales y no-reembolsables para reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y para la adaptación.
Se debe impulsar:
- energía renovable
- eficiencia energética
- reforestación
- transporte eléctrico masivo
- mejorar el manejo de residuos
- infraestructura más resiliente
- fortalecer su plan climático para reducir emisiones
- otras políticas de mitigación y adaptación
https://twitter.com/luis_fierro_eco/status/1224303548441251840?s=21
Monday, January 20, 2020
Las partículas contaminantes NO causan el cambio climático
Es preocupante el nivel de ignorancia sobre el cambio climático que revela el gráfico presentado en el programa “Políticamente Correcto” sobre el tema.
- se titula “Calentamiento Global en el Ecuador”, pero no trata sobre gases de efecto invernadero, sino sobre partículas contaminantes.
- Dice que 6 ciudades son las más contaminadas, pero se fundamenta en una base de datos que solo incluye a 9 ciudades, y que EXCLUYE a Guayaquil, Durán, Esmeraldas, Shushufindi, etc.
- dice que “sobrepasaron los niveles mundiales”, sin realmente especificar a que “niveles mundiales” se refiere. El nivel de partículas en la atmósfera es MUCHO PEOR en países como China, India, Egipto, o incluso Chile.
https://twitter.com/claudiaroura/status/1218933241362690048?s=21
- se titula “Calentamiento Global en el Ecuador”, pero no trata sobre gases de efecto invernadero, sino sobre partículas contaminantes.
- Dice que 6 ciudades son las más contaminadas, pero se fundamenta en una base de datos que solo incluye a 9 ciudades, y que EXCLUYE a Guayaquil, Durán, Esmeraldas, Shushufindi, etc.
- dice que “sobrepasaron los niveles mundiales”, sin realmente especificar a que “niveles mundiales” se refiere. El nivel de partículas en la atmósfera es MUCHO PEOR en países como China, India, Egipto, o incluso Chile.
https://twitter.com/claudiaroura/status/1218933241362690048?s=21
Wednesday, January 8, 2020
A prosperous 2020?
Luis Fierro Carrión (*)
@Luis_Fierro_Eco
Ecuador's per capita income fell by 2% in 2019, and will fall again by 1.3% in 2020, according to the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). GDP per capita has been contracting in real terms since 2014, with a cumulative fall of 7.3%.
As a result, the poverty rate, which had dropped from 36.7% in 2007 to 21.5% in 2017, has begun to rise again, reaching 23.2% in 2018. Unemployment is rising, from 3.8% in 2014 to a projected 4.8% in 2020. Most worrying is that the adequate employment rate has been reduced from 45.5% in 2014 to 38.5% in 2019.
This economic contraction and social deterioration is generating frustration and political instability, as evidenced in the October protests against the elimination of gasoline subsidies.
The main reason for this economic contraction is the fall in international oil prices. The average price of Ecuadorian crude fell from $ 84 per barrel in 2014 to $ 35 per barrel in 2016, and projected values of $54- $56 in 2019-2020.
However, the need for economic adjustment was exacerbated by its delay. Instead of immediately reducing public spending (which had reached 44% of GDP in 2014), the Correa government began to incur massive public deficits, reaching 8.2% of GDP in 2016. Public debt (internal and external), which stood at 27.1% of GDP in 2014, quickly doubled, reaching 44.6% of GDP in 2017, and a projected level of 50.1% of GDP in 2020.
The indebtedness included the issuance of international bonds, at high interest rates (compared to our neighbors, Colombia and Peru); indebtedness with China, also with onerous rates, and sometimes tied to projects of Chinese companies; oil presale, with Asian companies; “pawning” part of the gold reserve; use of the reserves of the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE), through the issuance of internal bonds and the delivery of 'assets' to the BCE; use of IESS reserves, through the issuance of internal bonds; taking of the pensions of some institutions; and the suspension of the 40% contribution of the State to the social security pensions. Several of these forms of indebtedness were unconstitutional or illegal.
By the time Correa handed Lenin Moreno the supposed 'served table', the BCE’s net international reserves (NIR) were negative at -3,293 million dollars (that is, there was a gap in the reserves, which could affect financial stability).
The calamitous fiscal and financial situation in the country led the Government to seek an adjustment program with the IMF. In exchange for financing in soft terms of the IMF for $ 4200 million, and multilateral banks for $ 6000 million, Ecuador promised to reduce its fiscal deficit, recover the NIR, and adopt structural reforms.
The initial goal was to improve the fiscal situation by 5% of GDP (improvement of about $ 5400 million), and a recovery of the NIR (to positive levels). More recently, the Fund reduced the fiscal consolidation target to 3.9% of GDP. Fiscal goals have been achieved, but only thanks to a severe contraction of public investment. The public wage bill has not been reduced, although a reduction of 0.3% of GDP is anticipated in 2020. It will be essential to reduce fuel subsidies, which will be attempted through better targeting.
An economic recovery could be achieved by:
-An increase in the price or volume of oil exports.
-Expansion of mining production (gold began to be exported from a concession).
-Increase in the prices of raw materials (which seems unlikely, given the recessive trends in some countries).
-Increased private investment (which is hindered by high labor costs in Ecuador, compared to Colombia and Peru; legal uncertainty; and bureaucratic obstacles for entrepreneurship in Ecuador). A labor reform that creates incentives to generate employment would be welcome, as well as reforms that facilitate the creation of companies.
-Expansion of energy efficiency, greater generation of renewable energy, greater use of public transport (for which there is international concessional financing).
-Increase in productivity, as well as greater value added of exports.
(*) Translation of opinion column published on January 6, 2020 in Diario “El Universo” of Ecuador
https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2020/01/06/nota/7677411/prospero-2020
@Luis_Fierro_Eco
Ecuador's per capita income fell by 2% in 2019, and will fall again by 1.3% in 2020, according to the projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). GDP per capita has been contracting in real terms since 2014, with a cumulative fall of 7.3%.
As a result, the poverty rate, which had dropped from 36.7% in 2007 to 21.5% in 2017, has begun to rise again, reaching 23.2% in 2018. Unemployment is rising, from 3.8% in 2014 to a projected 4.8% in 2020. Most worrying is that the adequate employment rate has been reduced from 45.5% in 2014 to 38.5% in 2019.
This economic contraction and social deterioration is generating frustration and political instability, as evidenced in the October protests against the elimination of gasoline subsidies.
The main reason for this economic contraction is the fall in international oil prices. The average price of Ecuadorian crude fell from $ 84 per barrel in 2014 to $ 35 per barrel in 2016, and projected values of $54- $56 in 2019-2020.
However, the need for economic adjustment was exacerbated by its delay. Instead of immediately reducing public spending (which had reached 44% of GDP in 2014), the Correa government began to incur massive public deficits, reaching 8.2% of GDP in 2016. Public debt (internal and external), which stood at 27.1% of GDP in 2014, quickly doubled, reaching 44.6% of GDP in 2017, and a projected level of 50.1% of GDP in 2020.
The indebtedness included the issuance of international bonds, at high interest rates (compared to our neighbors, Colombia and Peru); indebtedness with China, also with onerous rates, and sometimes tied to projects of Chinese companies; oil presale, with Asian companies; “pawning” part of the gold reserve; use of the reserves of the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE), through the issuance of internal bonds and the delivery of 'assets' to the BCE; use of IESS reserves, through the issuance of internal bonds; taking of the pensions of some institutions; and the suspension of the 40% contribution of the State to the social security pensions. Several of these forms of indebtedness were unconstitutional or illegal.
By the time Correa handed Lenin Moreno the supposed 'served table', the BCE’s net international reserves (NIR) were negative at -3,293 million dollars (that is, there was a gap in the reserves, which could affect financial stability).
The calamitous fiscal and financial situation in the country led the Government to seek an adjustment program with the IMF. In exchange for financing in soft terms of the IMF for $ 4200 million, and multilateral banks for $ 6000 million, Ecuador promised to reduce its fiscal deficit, recover the NIR, and adopt structural reforms.
The initial goal was to improve the fiscal situation by 5% of GDP (improvement of about $ 5400 million), and a recovery of the NIR (to positive levels). More recently, the Fund reduced the fiscal consolidation target to 3.9% of GDP. Fiscal goals have been achieved, but only thanks to a severe contraction of public investment. The public wage bill has not been reduced, although a reduction of 0.3% of GDP is anticipated in 2020. It will be essential to reduce fuel subsidies, which will be attempted through better targeting.
An economic recovery could be achieved by:
-An increase in the price or volume of oil exports.
-Expansion of mining production (gold began to be exported from a concession).
-Increase in the prices of raw materials (which seems unlikely, given the recessive trends in some countries).
-Increased private investment (which is hindered by high labor costs in Ecuador, compared to Colombia and Peru; legal uncertainty; and bureaucratic obstacles for entrepreneurship in Ecuador). A labor reform that creates incentives to generate employment would be welcome, as well as reforms that facilitate the creation of companies.
-Expansion of energy efficiency, greater generation of renewable energy, greater use of public transport (for which there is international concessional financing).
-Increase in productivity, as well as greater value added of exports.
(*) Translation of opinion column published on January 6, 2020 in Diario “El Universo” of Ecuador
https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2020/01/06/nota/7677411/prospero-2020
Monday, January 6, 2020
¿Un próspero 2020? Mi columna inaugural en el Diario “El Universo” de Ecuador
¿Un próspero 2020? | Columnistas | Opinión | El Universo
Mi columna inaugural en el Diario “El Universo” de Ecuador.
El ingreso por habitante del Ecuador cayó en 2 % en 2019, y volverá a caer en 1,3 % en 2020, según las proyecciones del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). El PIB per cápita viene contrayéndose en términos reales desde el año 2014, con una caída acumulada del 7,3 %.
https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2020/01/06/nota/7677411/prospero-2020?device=mobile
El Universo
Mi columna inaugural en el Diario “El Universo” de Ecuador.
El ingreso por habitante del Ecuador cayó en 2 % en 2019, y volverá a caer en 1,3 % en 2020, según las proyecciones del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). El PIB per cápita viene contrayéndose en términos reales desde el año 2014, con una caída acumulada del 7,3 %.
https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2020/01/06/nota/7677411/prospero-2020?device=mobile
El Universo
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Mis artículos de blog más leídos en el 2019 / Top blog posts of 2019
Mis artículos de blog más leídos en el 2019 / My top blog posts in 2019
# 6 - Un paquete económico equitativo, equilibrado y pro-ambiental
# 5 - El ajuste fiscal es consecuencia del desajuste 2014-17
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/07/el-ajuste-fiscal-es-consecuencia-del.html
# 4 - Interesantes artículos sobre 40 años de democracia en Ecuador, crecimiento económico e instituciones
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/08/interesantes-articulos-sobre-40-anos-de.html
# 3 - Impacto de la eliminación del subsidio a la gasolina extra y el diésel
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/10/impacto-de-la-eliminacion-del-subsidio.html
# 2 - La recesión que se viene (y ya llegó a 20 países)
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/06/la-recesion-que-se-viene-y-ya-llego-20.html
And the top blog post of 2019::
# 1 - Ni desdolarización ni prosperidad. Programa de Ajuste del Ecuador con el FMI
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/04/ni-desdolarizacion-ni-prosperidad.html
The top blog post in English was:
Is there still no place like home?
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/06/is-there-still-no-place-like-home.html
(I guess I should be translating more).
Happy New Year! Feliz Año Nuevo!
# 6 - Un paquete económico equitativo, equilibrado y pro-ambiental
# 5 - El ajuste fiscal es consecuencia del desajuste 2014-17
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/07/el-ajuste-fiscal-es-consecuencia-del.html
# 4 - Interesantes artículos sobre 40 años de democracia en Ecuador, crecimiento económico e instituciones
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/08/interesantes-articulos-sobre-40-anos-de.html
# 3 - Impacto de la eliminación del subsidio a la gasolina extra y el diésel
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/10/impacto-de-la-eliminacion-del-subsidio.html
# 2 - La recesión que se viene (y ya llegó a 20 países)
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/06/la-recesion-que-se-viene-y-ya-llego-20.html
And the top blog post of 2019::
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/04/ni-desdolarizacion-ni-prosperidad.html
The top blog post in English was:
Is there still no place like home?
https://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/2019/06/is-there-still-no-place-like-home.html
(I guess I should be translating more).
Happy New Year! Feliz Año Nuevo!
Sunday, October 6, 2019
No hay ninguna razón para una espiral inflacionaria por eliminación de subsidios
No hay ninguna razón para una espiral inflacionaria como consecuencia de la eliminación de subsidios a los combustibles en #Ecuador.
El impacto en costos es menor al 3 % (en promedio; obviamente más alto para transporte, pero es una parta relativamente baja de canasta básica). Por ej., aumento de 10 centavos en pasajes (límite superior) equivaldría a $6,20 por mes (2 viajes diarios), menor al aumento del Bono de Desarrollo Humano (y 1,5 % del salario mínimo).
La dolarización impide una expansión monetaria, que alimentaba inflación en el pasado.
Podría haber algo de especulación en primeras semanas, por la paralización de transporte y quienes buscan “pescar a río revuelto”. Pero los grandes supermercados sólo harán ajuste por el aumento de costos de transporte (1-2 %).
Mi expectativa es un aumento de precios del 3 % de una sola ocasión (un shock de oferta), que podría llegar a 4 % por efecto expansivo del aumento del Bono (aunque también hay un efecto contractivo por reducción de gasto público en $2.200 millones). Ojalá NO aumenten salario mínimo, dado que ya es MUY SUPERIOR al de Colombia y Perú.
El impacto en costos es menor al 3 % (en promedio; obviamente más alto para transporte, pero es una parta relativamente baja de canasta básica). Por ej., aumento de 10 centavos en pasajes (límite superior) equivaldría a $6,20 por mes (2 viajes diarios), menor al aumento del Bono de Desarrollo Humano (y 1,5 % del salario mínimo).
La dolarización impide una expansión monetaria, que alimentaba inflación en el pasado.
Podría haber algo de especulación en primeras semanas, por la paralización de transporte y quienes buscan “pescar a río revuelto”. Pero los grandes supermercados sólo harán ajuste por el aumento de costos de transporte (1-2 %).
Mi expectativa es un aumento de precios del 3 % de una sola ocasión (un shock de oferta), que podría llegar a 4 % por efecto expansivo del aumento del Bono (aunque también hay un efecto contractivo por reducción de gasto público en $2.200 millones). Ojalá NO aumenten salario mínimo, dado que ya es MUY SUPERIOR al de Colombia y Perú.
Friday, October 4, 2019
Gasto adicional de familias por eliminación de subsidios es menor al 3 % del ingreso
El BID hizo un estudio detallado sobre el impacto de eliminar los subsidios a los combustibles en el #Ecuador (y las posibles medidas de compensación).
Con escenarios de precios del crudo alto, medio y bajo, el gasto adicional por la eliminación de los subsidios de la gasolina y diésel era menos de 3 % del ingreso (con un mayor impacto en los quintiles de ingresos más altos). Cabe anotar que estamos actualmente en un escenario de precios más bien bajos.
La compensación requerida (aumento del Bono de Desarrollo Humano) era de $13,1 para el diésel y $6,1 para la gasolina. Esto dejaba a los quintiles uno y dos (de menor ingreso) con una ganancia neta. También recomendaba ampliar la cobertura del Bono, para cubrir una mayor proporción del segundo quintil.
En el caso del gas doméstico y la electricidad, el gasto adicional era más alto, y, además, afectaba en mayor medida a los quintiles inferiores.
https://publications.iadb.org/publications/spanish/document/Pueden_las_transferencias_del_gobierno_hacer_que_la_reforma_de_los_subsidios_energ%C3%A9ticos_sea_socialmente_aceptable_Un_estudio_de_caso_sobre_Ecuador.pdf
Nota bene: esto se refiere al impacto inicial de la eliminación de subsidios. Posteriormente, podría haber un impacto de alzas (o bajas) del precio global del crudo, como ocurre en la mayoría de los países del mundo que no tienen subsidios. Un alza del 25 % del crudo podría tener un impacto del 1 % en la inflación.
Thursday, October 3, 2019
Impacto de la eliminación del subsidio a la gasolina extra y el diésel
Breve análisis sobre el impacto de la eliminación del subsidio a la gasolina extra y el diésel:
1. La gasolina extra sube de $1.85 a $2.30 el galón. No es algo desmedido.
2. El impacto inflacionario no es tan significativo, dado que es un porcentaje mínimo del costo de los productos (tanto en transporte como en producción).
3. El impacto social se mitiga, mediante el aumento del bono de desarrollo humano en $15 al mes, a $65 (y el aumento de la cobertura a 300.000 familias adicionales, alcanzando a un tercio de la población).
4. Ya estaba previsto un aumento de las tarifas de transporte público (manteniendo el subsidio para estudiantes y personas de la tercera edad).
5. El impacto ambiental es muy benéfico, al incentivar el uso de transporte público, reduciendo las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (cambio climático) y de partículas (contaminación). Esto redunda en un impacto positivo en salud (menos problemas respiratorios).
6. El reto ahora es cambiar matriz energética del transporte hacia la electricidad (metro, tranvías, teleféricos, buses eléctricos, carros eléctricos).
7. La alternativa era un aumento del Impuesto al Valor Agregado en 3 puntos, al 15 %. El IVA es un impuesto regresivo, afecta en mayor proporción a los sectores de menores ingresos. Y es contractivo, hubiese empujado a la recesión.
8. El argumento de que, como somos país petrolero, la gasolina debe ser barata, es falaz.
El #Ecuador importa mayor parte de derivados, y gastaba miles de millones de dólares anuales en este subsidio, que era regresivo, beneficiando en mayor medida a 2 quintiles de mayores ingresos
9. Colombia y Perú también son países petroleros, y no solo que no tienen subsidios a los combustibles, sino que imponen impuestos, lo cual es lo correcto ambientalmente.
Parte de subsidio de #Ecuador se iba en contrabando (se estima que $500 millones al año).
Mi análisis del paquete económico, publicado en @revista_gestion
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