Pandemic
and Depression
By Luis
Fierro Carrión (*)
In November
2019 a new human coronavirus appeared in Wuhan, China. It was not produced in a
laboratory: it made the jump from an animal to humans (probably from a bat,
probably in a market where there were shellfish and wild animals in the middle
of tubs of water).
The new
coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2 by the World Health Organization, began to
reproduce rapidly among humans, having a high rate of contagion. It causes a
severe acute respiratory syndrome, like the original SARS (which appeared in
November 2002 in Foshan, China). The mortality rate, despite being about 20
times higher than that of seasonal influenza (2% vs. 0.1%), is lower than that
of the original SARS, MERS or Ebola.
The rapid
rate of infection, combined with a high but not too high mortality, makes this
pandemic resemble that of the "Spanish flu" of 1918-20. Back then,
influenza infected a third of humanity in two years, and an estimated 50
million people died (2.7% of the world's population at the time).
Given the
similarity of the contagion and death rates, epidemiologists have warned since
January that the new coronavirus, which causes the COVID-19 disease, could
infect up to 80% of humanity, and of those infected, 2% could die, that is, 123
million people (in Ecuador, 272,000 persons).
This would
occur if no control measures were taken, such as imposing isolation of the
infected, restricting the movement of people, wearing masks and gloves, etc.
The problem would be worse if the contagion were sudden, since it would exceed
the capacity of intensive care units and artificial ventilators, which are required
in about 5% of the cases. According to INEC, there were 1,183 intensive care
beds in Ecuador (72% in Quito, Guayaquil and Cuenca), and 1,745 artificial
respirators. If 10% of the population were infected at the same time, some
85,000 beds and respirators would be required. Guayaquil has already seen its
hospitals and funeral parlors surpassed.
The official
statistics of confirmed cases and deaths are under-reporting the cases, because
they reflect the number of tests carried out (15,526 until April 8). In the
month of March, there were 1,371 more deaths in Guayas (except Milagro) than
the average of January and February (in other provinces the number of deaths decreased,
perhaps due to a reduction in accidents and homicides). While not all
additional deaths can be attributed to COVID-19, at least 1,000 are likely due
to the disease (more than double the official number of confirmed and probable
deaths, 482 on April 8). But it also means that the actual number of infections
in Ecuador must already be around 50,000 (considering the 2% fatality rate).
It is
essential to maintain and reinforce social distancing measures, equip the
population with masks, and provide health personnel with professional
protection equipment. There is an urgent need to increase the number of
intensive care beds and ventilators.
The restrictions will have a severe economic impact. In addition to the fall in the price of oil and other export products, there is the paralysis of sectors of the domestic economy, including restaurants, hotels, tourism, entertainment and transportation; a simultaneous supply and demand shock.
The
economic collapse is likely to be more severe than the 2008 global financial
crisis; global GDP could fall between 3 and 6%, and that of Ecuador by 10% or
more. Global unemployment could exceed double digits; in Ecuador adequate
employment, which was just 40% of the total, will decrease further.
Some
economists have proposed measures to alleviate the humanitarian emergency (many
families have lost their income); avoid massive bankruptcies of micro and small
companies; and reactivate production progressively. There are public and
private initiatives to alleviate the crisis. Here are the proposals I made on
March 23rd:
The
pandemic will continue until there is an effective vaccine (at least 12
months), or until the majority of the population has been infected. What will
come next will be a "new normal". Teleworking, distance education,
and teleconferencing will increasingly weigh. International tourism will not
recover in the short term. All this will reduce the demand for fossil fuels.
The sectors
to be strengthened will be e-commerce, video-conference systems, distance
education, digital finance, 3D manufacturing. The only good thing that will
come out will be a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, which will slow down
climate change and reduce deaths from air pollution.
(*) This is
a translation of the opinion column I published in Diario El Universo on April 13th:
