Top 12 Substack posts of 2023 / 12 posts de Substack más leídos en 2023

 As 2023 comes to a close, a look back at the top 12 posts on Substack this year. Also, of note, I now have 32 free subscribers (though, alas, no paid subscriber yet - for the cost of a latte you can support my writing!).

Los 12 posts más populares de 2023 en Substack:

12.  El Ciborg con Alzheimer (cuento)

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/el-ciborg-con-alzheimer

The Cyborg with Alzheimer's, a short story:

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/the-cyborg-with-alzheimers

11. Impacto del Mecanismo de Ajuste en Frontera por Carbono de la UE

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/impacto-del-mecanismo-de-ajuste-en

On the impact of the EU CBAM:

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/impact-of-the-eu-carbon-border-adjustment

10. Real income, real wages are rising under Bidenomics

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/real-income-real-wages-are-rising

Sobre el aumento de los ingresos reales en EE.UU; también disponible en español:

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/los-ingresos-reales-y-los-salarios

9. Competencia por atraer inmigrantes

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competencia-por-atraer-inmigrantes

In English:

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competition-to-attract-immigrants

8. Publications on climate finance and sustainable development

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/publications-on-climate-finance-and

7. Capítulo 1 de mi novela "El Último Humano"

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/capitulo-1-de-mi-novela-el-ultimo

Chapter 1 of my novel, "The Last Human"

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/chapter-1-of-my-novel-the-last-human

6. Siete veces Si en el Referendo

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/siete-veces-si-en-el-referendo

On the referendum in Ecuador

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/seven-times-yes-in-the-referendum

5. Arauz y la ecua(des)dolarización

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/arauz-y-la-ecuadesdolarizacion

On Vice-presidential candidate Arauz and his proposals to eliminate dollarization:

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/arauz-and-the-ecuadedollarization

4. Un año de la invasión rusa a Ucrania

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/un-ano-de-la-invasion-rusa-a-ucrania

One year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/one-year-of-the-russian-invasion

3. Respuesta al Embajador Ruso (respuesta a artículo anterior)

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/un-ano-de-la-invasion-rusa-a-ucrania

My response to the Russian Ambassador (response to previous article)

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/my-response-to-the-russian-ambassador

2. Prohibido olvidar II (recordando al régimen de Rafael Correa)

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/prohibido-olvidar-ii

Forbidden to Forget II (the Correa regime in Ecuador)

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/forbidden-to-forget-ii

And the top post of 2023 / y el post más leído en 2023:

1. Luisa te Venezuelaniza (sobre la candidata presidencial en Ecuador, Luisa González)

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/luisa-te-venezuelaniza

About presidential candidate Luisa González, in English:

https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/luisa-venezuelanizes-you

Remember you can subscribe (for free).

The "Wired" magazine 1997 predictions (and my predictions for 2064)

By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)

Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C

In July 1997, "Wired" magazine published a rather optimistic article predicting a long "boom" of prosperity, freedom, and environmental improvements in the next 25 years (until 2022). 

However, to temper such optimism a bit, it also published a sidebar on problems that could arise and adversely affect this boom.

Some of these negative predictions have been fulfilled almost to the letter:

• “Tensions between China and the US escalate into a new Cold War — bordering on a hot one.”

• “Russia devolves into a kleptocracy run by a mafia or retreats into quasi-communist nationalism that threatens Europe"

• “Major ecological crisis causes a global climate change that among other things, disrupts the food supply - causing big price increases everywhere and sporadic famines".

Others have been partially fulfilled, for example

• “An uncontrollable plague - a modern-day influenza epidemic or its equivalent - takes off like wildfire, killing upward of 200 million people". The COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to have killed 20 million people to date.

• “Europe's integration process grinds to a halt. Eastern and Western Europe can't finesse a reunification". Although the United Kingdom left the European Union through Brexit, since 1997 the number of Member States of the European Union has increased from 15 to 27 (including several Central and Eastern European countries), with an additional 10 countries waiting to enter.

• An increase in crime and terrorism.

Other predictions failed, for example, that new technologies would not bring about an increase in productivity.

In my science fiction novel "The Last Human", I make some predictions until 2064. 

Without going into too many "spoilers", some of these are:

• The Saudi autocracy will collapse and an Islamic republic will be established.

• Both China and Cuba will move towards multi-party democracies, although still with a predominance of a “democratic socialist” party; while the North Korean government will implode and reunite with South Korea.

• Russia will weaken, losing population and economic dynamism (the novel was written before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine).

• Islamist fundamentalists will detonate several radiological bombs (explosives that disperse radioactive material); and they will also blow up nuclear plants.

• Despite the Paris Agreement and other efforts to combat climate change, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will continue to rise, and sea levels will continue to rise. More natural disasters due to climate change will occur, and several cities and areas of the planet will be flooded.

• Global artificial intelligence systems will gain consciousness.

• The Republican Party in the US will collapse, as the proportion of the US population that is Latino, Asian, or black increases (and as the position of young white people changes as well). A party further to the left of the Democratic Party will eventually emerge.

• In Europe, on the other hand, there will be an ascendancy of far-right, anti-Islamic, xenophobic and racist parties; and greater political fragmentation.

• Collapse of agriculture, pollination, loss of drinking water sources.

• Nuclear proliferation.

• The Israeli government will decide to decentralize the Jewish population to other regions.

My novel tries to be a call to action to avoid being affected by these new horsemen of the Apocalypse. It is available on Amazon (in print and on Kindle):

https://www.amazon.es/Last-Human-English-Luis-Fierro-ebook/dp/B09D45JFK8

(*)  A shorter version of this column appeared in Spanish in Diario "El Universo" on August 19, 2022.

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/predicciones-de-wired-y-mias-nota/

War and Economy

By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Luis_Fierro_C

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacted a heavy human toll, with tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians killed, apart from some 20,000 Russian troops (as of April 13, according to Ukrainian sources). In the besieged city of Mariupol alone, the Mayor indicated that more than 20,000 civilians could have been killed. The number of injured could reach more than 100,000, and there are more than 11 million displaced people (of which about 5 million have left Ukraine).

Apart from this, the war has brought considerable economic losses, with the destruction of homes, infrastructure, roads, etc. It is estimated that more than USD 100 billion worth of infrastructure has been destroyed in Ukraine. The World Bank estimates that Ukraine's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could fall by 45% as a result of the war, due to the collapse of production and exports in much of its territory. The poverty rate could rise from 1.8% of the population to about a third.

The Russian economy, subject to severe sanctions by NATO countries and other allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc.), could fall by 11.2% in 2022, according to the World Bank.

If the war is prolonged and escalated, the drop in GDP could reach 75% in the case of Ukraine and 20% in the case of Russia.

Other countries severely affected will be the neighbors of Ukraine and Russia, including Belarus (-6 %) and Moldova (countries in which Russian troops also operate, in the former at the invitation of its dictator, in the latter due to the occupation of the Transnistria area). 

The growth projection for Central Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania) will be reduced from 4.7% to 3.5%, due to the influx of refugees, the increase in commodity prices and the deterioration of business confidence. Refugee influx fluctuates between 4% of the pre-war population (Hungary) to 15% in the case of Moldova; Almost two and a half million people have entered Poland, equivalent to 6% of the pre-war population.

At the global level, it is estimated that the GDP growth rate will fall from 4% to 3%, mainly as a result of the effects on world trade, and the rise in the prices of fuel and food.

Price increases have been especially pronounced for commodities in which Russia and Ukraine are key exporters, including: natural gas, coal, oil, fertilizers, wheat, aluminum, iron ore and palladium.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) estimates that the growth rate will fall by one point in 2022, from 2.1% to 1.2%, and there could be a contraction of 0.4 % in 2023.

The growth scenarios for each country depend on various factors, from their commercial links with Russia and Ukraine, to their level of indebtedness; but in general, the IDB expects it to decrease compared to the pre-war scenario.

The high price of hydrocarbons and cereals will benefit the countries that export these products, while the importers, particularly those in Central America and the Caribbean, will suffer higher inflation.

Russia and Ukraine are important markets for several of the products that Latin America and the Caribbean exports, such as dairy products and meat (Southern Cone), fruits (for example, bananas, in the case of Ecuador) and flowers.

Around 20% of the region's total fertilizer imports come from Russia, as do more than 5% of iron and steel imports.

Another collateral effect will be the rise in international interest rates, as a result of the higher inflation faced by countries such as the United States and Europe.

In the case of Ecuador, the impacts will be contradictory: a positive effect due to the rise in the price of oil, a negative effect due to the increase in the price of fertilizers and the closure of the markets for bananas and flowers. The World Bank increased its 2022 growth forecast to 4.3%  (the second fastest growing country in Latin America, after Colombia).

But uncertainty will be the global and regional tone, subject to how the Russian invasion and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic evolve.

(*) Translation of my column published in Diario "El Universo" on April 15, 2022'

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/la-guerra-y-la-economia-nota/

Russia's flagship warship the Moskva has sunk

Putin's Defeat

 By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)

Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C

As I write these lines, the fierce attacks of the Russian government against Ukraine continue, leaving as a result thousands of Ukrainian civilians dead, apart from some 1,300 Ukrainian troops, and more than 13,800 Russian troops (according to Ukrainian sources). There are nearly 3 million refugees (out of a population of 44 million).

However, Putin has already been defeated in the strategic objectives he had established in launching this bloody attack. His goals were:

• Removing President Zelensky and weakening Ukraine's democratic government

• “Demilitarization” of Ukraine.

• Halting the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defensive alliance into Eastern Europe.

• Weakening the European Union and preventing it from acquiring new members.

• Strengthening Russia's “zone of influence” in Europe and Asia.

• Expanding the reach of the Russian government's propaganda outlets.

• Consolidating his power.

As a result of his unwarranted and unprovoked attack, the opposite is happening.

• President Zelensky is still alive, and the level of support for him and his government has risen from 25% before the invasion, to 91%. Russian-speaking Ukrainians living in eastern Ukraine have increased their support for the Kyiv government, including holding pro-Ukrainian demonstrations in cities occupied by Russian soldiers.

• Ukraine is receiving defensive weapons from NATO countries and other allies (Australia, Finland, Japan, Sweden, etc.).

• In the first three weeks of fighting (through March 16), the Russians are estimated to have lost: 84 planes, 108 helicopters, 11 combat drones, 430 tanks, 190 artillery pieces, 1,375 armored personnel carriers, 70 missile-launching units, 3 ships, 819 vehicles, 60 fuel tankers and 43 anti-aircraft units. It is worth mentioning that the loss of 13,800 Russian troops is getting close to the losses of the Soviet Union during the 10 years of occupation of Afghanistan (about 14,500).

• Finland and Sweden, currently neutral countries, are considering joining NATO, apart from Ukraine, Georgia and Bosnia. Germany, Sweden and other countries have announced substantial increases in their defense budgets.

• The European Union has been unified around support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have applied to join the EU (in addition to Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey).

• The Russian economy is collapsing in the face of imposed sanctions. The ruble has lost 40% of its value, and an economic contraction of more than 10% is estimated. Russia's GDP per capita could return to the level of 1989. The sanctions on the banks, their exclusion from the SWIFT system and the ban on the sale of oil and gas to several countries will have a severe impact.

• Various Russian propaganda outlets, such as Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik, have been banned in several countries, including those of the European Union. Several far-right and far-left politicians who used to support Putin (including Trump) have changed their positions. Even in countries like Hungary and Serbia, pro-Putin stances have waned. Apart from Russia, only 4 countries voted against a resolution condemning Russia in the United Nations General Assembly, while 141 voted in favor (35 abstained, including China, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and El Salvador).

• Thousands of peace protesters have been arrested in Russia. Some parliamentarians, oligarchs, retired military, and even members of the intelligence service (FSB) have expressed their opposition to the war. Putin's power is weakening, and there is even the possibility that he will be deposed.

Ultimately, Putin is being defeated because the Ukrainians are bravely defending their homeland, while the Russian soldiers are demoralized by attacking and killing those whom Putin himself had called "Slavic brothers" (many of them ethnically and linguistically Russian).

(*) A Spanish version of this column was published in “Diario El Universo” on March 18, 2022:

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/la-derrota-de-putin-nota/

 

Disinfodemic

By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)

Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_Eco

The Russian government's propaganda and intelligence apparatus has been interfering in electoral processes since the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014. Their intervention in the campaign for “Brexit” (the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union) was notable, as well as the 2016 and 2020 campaigns in the United States (in favor of Donald Trump).

The Russian government's meddling in the 2016 elections, to attack Hillary Clinton and favor Trump, was even investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller.

Generally speaking, the Mueller report found that Russia sent disinformation, or manipulated information, to social media accounts, including Twitter and Facebook. Additionally, the electoral systems of all 50 states were attacked by Russian agents, looking for vulnerabilities. There is no evidence that the votes were changed, but there is evidence that Russian agents (linked to the Kremlin's security apparatus) may have changed the voter registration information, including the assignment of polling places.

Following the "success" of disinformation campaigns with Brexit and the election of Trump in 2016 (and some failed attempts, such as in Scotland and Catalonia), several other countries have developed their capacities for this type of disinformation war. Among them, for example, it was reported that both Russia and Iran (or possibly agents from other countries posing as Iranians) intervened in the 2020 elections in the United States, and other nations such as China and North Korea also developed that ability.

Another variant is the "hacking" of email accounts of political leaders, which has probably happened for decades, but in 2016 they were weaponized to attack certain candidates. Thus, for example, Russian intelligence was able to enter the accounts of Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, John Podesta, as well as the Democratic National Committee, but instead of keeping the information hidden for potential extortion, they disclosed it (via WikiLeaks and other digital media) to try to generate internal divisions in the Democratic Party, and thus try to reduce the vote for Clinton in the general election. Hillary Clinton ended up getting nearly 3 million more votes than Trump, but because of the “Electoral College” structure, Trump was able to win by a margin of 71,000 votes in three states.

With the pandemic, misinformation has also been unleashed, generating multiple unsubstantiated conspiracy theories. In some of them, billionaires who have supported the consolidation of democracy, public health, and education, such as George Soros and Bill Gates, have been targeted. While Gates, for example, has been promoting vaccination against various epidemics and strengthening public health systems; absurd conspiracy theories were fabricated such as that the founder of Microsoft would have "created" the coronavirus and would seek to "enrich himself" with vaccines (while the activities of the Gates Foundation are philanthropic).

In the United States, in addition, the QAnon conspiracy theory has spread, according to which the elites of the Democratic Party, millionaires, actors, etc., would be part of a satanic group dedicated to pedophilia and the murder of children. The latter theory emerged after candidate Trump was accused in a court case of having raped two minors, in the company of Jeffrey Epstein (the convicted pedophile who was later found dead in a New York jail).

Followers of this sect, and other white supremacist and neo-Nazi groups, invaded the United States Congress on January 6, killing 5 people (and threatening Democratic lawmakers), motivated by misinformation generated by Trump and his followers, around false accusations of electoral fraud (accusations that were disproved in more than 60 court cases, including one presented before the Supreme Court). The head of computer security for the elections (of the Trump administration) and Trump's own Attorney General, Bill Barr, denied that there had been electoral fraud; but nonetheless, a high percentage of Republicans and Trump supporters still think that it happened.

In this, social networks have a degree of responsibility. An MIT study found that false information is distributed more widely, faster, and deeper than true information, across all categories of information, in many cases by an order of magnitude.

Therefore, it was a bit untimely for Facebook, Twitter and other social networks to close the accounts of Trump, QAnon followers and other sources of misinformation (about the pandemic and vaccines, for example), when the damage had already been done.

PS: Here are some suggestions from UNESCO on how to confront disinformation.

https://en.unesco.org/covid19/disinfodemic

(*) a summarized version of this article was published in Spanish on February 5th, 2021, in the Ecuadorian newspaper "El Universo"

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2021/02/05/nota/9613188/desinfodemia

Photo:  Trump Supporters during the invasion of the U.S. Capitol building.  (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)