Economic Relations between the European Union, Latin America and the Caribbean

 By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)

Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C

The economic and political relations between the European Union (EU) and the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have been strengthening in recent decades, although with less momentum in recent years (given the increase in trade between LAC and China).

I wrote a Policy Brief on the “Economic Relations between the European Union and Latin America and the Caribbean” for the EU-LAC Foundation and the Institut des Amériques, published at the end of April, and available at: https:/ /eulacfoundation.org/ 

The signing of association agreements between the EU and most LAC countries has led to an increase in foreign trade between the two regions, while the EU has remained the main source of foreign direct investment in LAC. Investment by LAC companies in EU countries has also increased. The trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, the largest market in LAC, is however still pending ratification.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the growing impacts of climate change have given renewed impetus to the need for close collaboration between the two regions. The EU and its Member States have provided €3 billion in health aid to LAC. The EU exported more than 130 million doses of vaccines to LAC countries, and is one of the main contributors to the COVAX facility, which delivered more than 50 million additional doses to the region. EU Member States have donated 10 million doses.

Regarding climate change, the two regions have been closely aligned since the negotiation of the Paris Climate Change Agreement at COP21 (December 2015). Europe has prioritized the ecological transition, digital transformation and sustainable development in its regional and bilateral cooperation programs, and LAC countries are receptive to the means of implementation (climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building) to promote mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The two regions are perhaps the ones that have given the greatest support to the implementation of the Paris Agreement, together with groups of countries such as the small island states (SIDS) and the least developed countries (LDC).

€3.4 billion will be made available to LAC under the multi-year programme (2021-27) of NDICI-Global Europe, to support a sustainable and green recovery. In addition, the EU will mobilize more than €12 billion of public and private investment in the region through the European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+).

The EU Regional Multiannual Indicative Program for LAC (2021-27) will support the green transition, digital transformation, sustainable and inclusive economy, democratic governance, security and migration, as well as social cohesion and the fight against inequalities. Human development and education will likewise feature prominently.

Achieving greater growth, stability and security in LAC countries makes them more attractive markets for EU companies, both for commercial and investment purposes, which is why it is a mutually beneficial relationship.

(*) Column published on May 21 by the newspaper "El Universo" in Ecuador.

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/relaciones-con-la-union-europea-nota/

Disinfodemic

By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)

Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_Eco

The Russian government's propaganda and intelligence apparatus has been interfering in electoral processes since the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014. Their intervention in the campaign for “Brexit” (the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union) was notable, as well as the 2016 and 2020 campaigns in the United States (in favor of Donald Trump).

The Russian government's meddling in the 2016 elections, to attack Hillary Clinton and favor Trump, was even investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller.

Generally speaking, the Mueller report found that Russia sent disinformation, or manipulated information, to social media accounts, including Twitter and Facebook. Additionally, the electoral systems of all 50 states were attacked by Russian agents, looking for vulnerabilities. There is no evidence that the votes were changed, but there is evidence that Russian agents (linked to the Kremlin's security apparatus) may have changed the voter registration information, including the assignment of polling places.

Following the "success" of disinformation campaigns with Brexit and the election of Trump in 2016 (and some failed attempts, such as in Scotland and Catalonia), several other countries have developed their capacities for this type of disinformation war. Among them, for example, it was reported that both Russia and Iran (or possibly agents from other countries posing as Iranians) intervened in the 2020 elections in the United States, and other nations such as China and North Korea also developed that ability.

Another variant is the "hacking" of email accounts of political leaders, which has probably happened for decades, but in 2016 they were weaponized to attack certain candidates. Thus, for example, Russian intelligence was able to enter the accounts of Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, John Podesta, as well as the Democratic National Committee, but instead of keeping the information hidden for potential extortion, they disclosed it (via WikiLeaks and other digital media) to try to generate internal divisions in the Democratic Party, and thus try to reduce the vote for Clinton in the general election. Hillary Clinton ended up getting nearly 3 million more votes than Trump, but because of the “Electoral College” structure, Trump was able to win by a margin of 71,000 votes in three states.

With the pandemic, misinformation has also been unleashed, generating multiple unsubstantiated conspiracy theories. In some of them, billionaires who have supported the consolidation of democracy, public health, and education, such as George Soros and Bill Gates, have been targeted. While Gates, for example, has been promoting vaccination against various epidemics and strengthening public health systems; absurd conspiracy theories were fabricated such as that the founder of Microsoft would have "created" the coronavirus and would seek to "enrich himself" with vaccines (while the activities of the Gates Foundation are philanthropic).

In the United States, in addition, the QAnon conspiracy theory has spread, according to which the elites of the Democratic Party, millionaires, actors, etc., would be part of a satanic group dedicated to pedophilia and the murder of children. The latter theory emerged after candidate Trump was accused in a court case of having raped two minors, in the company of Jeffrey Epstein (the convicted pedophile who was later found dead in a New York jail).

Followers of this sect, and other white supremacist and neo-Nazi groups, invaded the United States Congress on January 6, killing 5 people (and threatening Democratic lawmakers), motivated by misinformation generated by Trump and his followers, around false accusations of electoral fraud (accusations that were disproved in more than 60 court cases, including one presented before the Supreme Court). The head of computer security for the elections (of the Trump administration) and Trump's own Attorney General, Bill Barr, denied that there had been electoral fraud; but nonetheless, a high percentage of Republicans and Trump supporters still think that it happened.

In this, social networks have a degree of responsibility. An MIT study found that false information is distributed more widely, faster, and deeper than true information, across all categories of information, in many cases by an order of magnitude.

Therefore, it was a bit untimely for Facebook, Twitter and other social networks to close the accounts of Trump, QAnon followers and other sources of misinformation (about the pandemic and vaccines, for example), when the damage had already been done.

PS: Here are some suggestions from UNESCO on how to confront disinformation.

https://en.unesco.org/covid19/disinfodemic

(*) a summarized version of this article was published in Spanish on February 5th, 2021, in the Ecuadorian newspaper "El Universo"

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2021/02/05/nota/9613188/desinfodemia

Photo:  Trump Supporters during the invasion of the U.S. Capitol building.  (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

New Year, New Life?

By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)

Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_Eco

In my first column in Diario "El Universo", published last January, I asked if 2020 would be a prosperous year. Obviously, my rather pessimistic forecast fell short in the face of cruel reality, which recalls the phrase of Queen Elizabeth II, "annus horribilis" (horrible year in Latin).

The COVID-19 pandemic (the worst pandemic since 1918-1920) gave way to the worst economic recession since the Great Depression of 1929. Unemployment levels soared worldwide and in Ecuador, reaching a record rate of 13.3% in June (in September it fell to 6.6%).

There were 40 thousand excess deaths in Ecuador until mid-December (0.22% of the population, the second worst rate in the world after Peru), and the health crisis left thousands of people with chronic diseases. Goldman Sachs estimated that Ecuador was third in the world in the level of contagion (33 % of the population), after Peru (39 %) and Mexico (34 %).

After such a distressing year, the last few weeks have brought some hope that 2021 will be better.

Towards the end of the year, medical authorities in the UK, the US and the European Union approved the vaccines for COVID-19 developed by BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna. The UK also approved the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. Vaccines have also been approved in Russia and China, albeit without a transparent and open regimen regarding their results (trials of the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine in Peru were suspended after some patients experienced severe neurological side effects).

Another ray of light was the election of Joe Biden as president of the United States, who will bring back a foreign and internal policy based on strategies, norms, multilateralism, and, in the case of pandemic control, on science.

A positive side effect of the pandemic was a 7% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, mainly due to the reduction in the use of fossil fuels for transportation (vehicles and aircraft). It has been a practical experience of reducing unnecessary travel and allowing work from home for part of the population, which could lead to a more sustained reduction in emissions.

Although the annual climate conference (COP26) was postponed to 2021, a virtual “climate action summit” took place, in which proposals were presented to strengthen climate action plans (Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs).

Several Latin American countries presented more ambitious proposals, including Ecuador (which committed to decarbonization by 2050), Costa Rica (ratified its net emissions goal of zero in 2050), Peru (increased its emission reduction goal to 40 % until 2030), among others.

The award of contracts for wind generation projects in Loja and solar energy in El Aromo (a large plot of land that the Correa government flattened at a cost of $ 1,500 million, for a supposed refinery) was also announced. The two projects, with an investment of $ 400 million, will generate 320 megawatts.

The electoral campaign begins, with 16 or 17 presidential candidates (one candidate is still pending qualification). The average of the polls to date puts Guillermo Lasso, Andrés Arauz, Yaku Pérez and César Montúfar in the first four positions; there is likely to be a second round, and it will be settled between two of these four candidates.

These are clear options: one from the right, one from the center, and two from left-wing populism. Both Pachakutik and Correísmo have proposed to give a "universal basic income" to citizens in "electronic currency", which, as I wrote the previous month, would quickly lead to the de-dollarization and collapse of the economy.

There is hope that 2021 will be better than 2020, but it will depend, in the case of Ecuador, on the will of the voters.

(*) Updated translation of a column published in Diario “El Universo” on January 1^st, 2021:

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2021/01/01/nota/9091186/ano-nuevo-vida-nueva