Putin's Defeat

 By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)

Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C

As I write these lines, the fierce attacks of the Russian government against Ukraine continue, leaving as a result thousands of Ukrainian civilians dead, apart from some 1,300 Ukrainian troops, and more than 13,800 Russian troops (according to Ukrainian sources). There are nearly 3 million refugees (out of a population of 44 million).

However, Putin has already been defeated in the strategic objectives he had established in launching this bloody attack. His goals were:

• Removing President Zelensky and weakening Ukraine's democratic government

• “Demilitarization” of Ukraine.

• Halting the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defensive alliance into Eastern Europe.

• Weakening the European Union and preventing it from acquiring new members.

• Strengthening Russia's “zone of influence” in Europe and Asia.

• Expanding the reach of the Russian government's propaganda outlets.

• Consolidating his power.

As a result of his unwarranted and unprovoked attack, the opposite is happening.

• President Zelensky is still alive, and the level of support for him and his government has risen from 25% before the invasion, to 91%. Russian-speaking Ukrainians living in eastern Ukraine have increased their support for the Kyiv government, including holding pro-Ukrainian demonstrations in cities occupied by Russian soldiers.

• Ukraine is receiving defensive weapons from NATO countries and other allies (Australia, Finland, Japan, Sweden, etc.).

• In the first three weeks of fighting (through March 16), the Russians are estimated to have lost: 84 planes, 108 helicopters, 11 combat drones, 430 tanks, 190 artillery pieces, 1,375 armored personnel carriers, 70 missile-launching units, 3 ships, 819 vehicles, 60 fuel tankers and 43 anti-aircraft units. It is worth mentioning that the loss of 13,800 Russian troops is getting close to the losses of the Soviet Union during the 10 years of occupation of Afghanistan (about 14,500).

• Finland and Sweden, currently neutral countries, are considering joining NATO, apart from Ukraine, Georgia and Bosnia. Germany, Sweden and other countries have announced substantial increases in their defense budgets.

• The European Union has been unified around support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova have applied to join the EU (in addition to Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey).

• The Russian economy is collapsing in the face of imposed sanctions. The ruble has lost 40% of its value, and an economic contraction of more than 10% is estimated. Russia's GDP per capita could return to the level of 1989. The sanctions on the banks, their exclusion from the SWIFT system and the ban on the sale of oil and gas to several countries will have a severe impact.

• Various Russian propaganda outlets, such as Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik, have been banned in several countries, including those of the European Union. Several far-right and far-left politicians who used to support Putin (including Trump) have changed their positions. Even in countries like Hungary and Serbia, pro-Putin stances have waned. Apart from Russia, only 4 countries voted against a resolution condemning Russia in the United Nations General Assembly, while 141 voted in favor (35 abstained, including China, Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and El Salvador).

• Thousands of peace protesters have been arrested in Russia. Some parliamentarians, oligarchs, retired military, and even members of the intelligence service (FSB) have expressed their opposition to the war. Putin's power is weakening, and there is even the possibility that he will be deposed.

Ultimately, Putin is being defeated because the Ukrainians are bravely defending their homeland, while the Russian soldiers are demoralized by attacking and killing those whom Putin himself had called "Slavic brothers" (many of them ethnically and linguistically Russian).

(*) A Spanish version of this column was published in “Diario El Universo” on March 18, 2022:

https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/la-derrota-de-putin-nota/