By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)
Twitter:
@Luis_Fierro_Eco
As I write these
lines, the Presidency of the United States is about to be defined, between the
current president, Donald Trump, and the Democratic candidate Joe Biden [on Nov.
6th Biden clinched the majority of the Electoral College].
The results point
to a narrow victory for Biden in the Electoral College (and a more significant
lead in the popular vote), along with his running mate, Kamala Harris (whose
parents were from Jamaica and India). She will be the first female Vice-President
in American history; the second African-American in the Executive branch; and
the first Indian-American.
Biden is a
well-known figure for Latin America, given that he was Vice-President between
2009 and 2017, during the Barack Obama administration. In addition, he was an
emissary of the Obama administration to the region. Before being Vice-President,
he chaired the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee.
What can you
expect from a Biden government? In general terms, a return to a foreign policy
based on norms, alliances, and long-term strategies, as has been traditional in
the United States, instead of Trump's Twitter storms, in which he vilified
Latinos and rulers from Latin America (remember that, at the launch of his
campaign in 2015, Trump said that Mexicans were rapists and criminals).
Instead of an
emphasis on building a wall at the border and restricting immigration and
asylum applications, it could return to a more humane immigration policy. The
crime of ripping more than 3,000 underage children from the arms of their
parents and locking them in cages will not be repeated. Shortly before the
elections, non-governmental groups said that despite their best efforts, they
had not been able to locate the parents of 545 children, who remained abandoned.
In the second and final debate, Biden said he would do whatever he could to
make amends for this crime.
Regarding trade
issues, although Trump imposed restrictions on steel imports from
several countries, and also threatened to eliminate NAFTA (North American Free
Trade Agreement), in the end he adopted a very similar trade agreement,
although he insisted on changing its acronym in English to USMCA (United
States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).
With regard to the
Bolivarian axis (Venezuela-Nicaragua-Cuba), which Bolivia will join again,
Trump maintained a belligerent rhetoric, even threatening a military
intervention in Venezuela; but, in the end, he did nothing, apart from
recognizing (together with the governments of the Lima Group) Juan Guaidó as
interim president. In conversations with his former National Security Advisor,
John Bolton, Trump mocked Guaidó’s weakness and said he was impressed by Maduro's
ability to stay in power. But he did not grant Temporary Protected Status (TPS)
to Venezuelan refugees fleeing the dictatorship and proposed eliminating the TPS
for Central American immigrants (including those from Nicaragua). Trump's main
drive was xenophobia and not ideological issues (he has tried to do business in
Cuba in the past).
Biden, by
contrast, argued in a book in favor of addressing the problems of violence and
poverty that affected Central America. "Of all the hot spots in the world,
I had come to think that Central America presented the best opportunity."
In 2015 he was instrumental in convincing Congress to pass an assistance
package for the region for $ 750 million (which Trump later thwarted).
Biden and his team
of experts “would take a broader approach to the problem of immigration and the
region. They also say that they would address poverty and violence, the root
causes of migration and instability, furthering the fight against corruption
and investing in job creation and improved governance,” Ernesto Londoño wrote
in the New York Times.
Rather than being
a 800 pound gorilla imposing its ideas on the region, the United States would
operate within the framework of mutual respect and shared responsibility, said
Jake Sullivan, an adviser to Biden. Biden would propose a $ 4 billion
assistance package to try to tackle the causes of unauthorized immigration.
Biden would also renew
the United States participation in the Paris Agreement to tackle climate
change, and support the region's efforts to combat it, including reducing
deforestation in the Amazon (which might put him in conflict with Bolsonaro in
Brazil).
Ecuador (depending
on who is elected in 2021) could take advantage of this relaunch of U.S. foreign
policy by championing the fight against climate change, against deforestation,
and in favor of renewable energy. It could also push for a free trade agreement
with its main trading partner, the US; and could complete integration into the
Pacific Alliance.
One setback for
Latin America under Trump was the appointment of a US citizen as President of
the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), a hardline Cuban-American ideologue,
which by a "gentlemen's agreement" had previously been reserved for a
citizen of the region. The Moreno government was an early supporter of the proposal,
leading to the former Ecuadorian Finance Minister Richard Martínez being
nominated as a potential vice president. This appointment is frozen, while it
is determined if it violates IDB regulations (it does appear to violate the
Constitution of Ecuador). But it remains to be seen if Biden keeps
Claver-Carone in office (he could hold up U.S. support for a capital increase
until Claver-Carone steps down).
Paul Krugman
indicates that a Biden Presidency is likely to return the US to its role as a
promoter of multilateralism, by returning to bodies such as UNESCO and the
World Health Organization. In a more immediate term, we shall see if Biden
joins the international agreements for the distribution of an effective vaccine
for Covid-19 (something that Trump has refused to do, by prioritizing "America
First”).
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