Flujos financieros ilícitos en el Ecuador se estiman en $ 1.150 millones

"Flujos financieros ilícitos en el Ecuador se estiman en $ 1.150 millones", mi artículo en la Revista Gestión de abril-mayo 2014.

En la sección Finanzas, de la edición 238, correspondiente a abril – mayo  2014, se exponen los resultados del informe de Global Financial Integrity (GFI), según el cual los flujos financieros ilícitos (FFI) del Ecuador se estimaron en un promedio anual de $ 1.151 millones en el período 2002-2011, que le coloca en el puesto 57 en el mundo. En 2011 se estima que los países en desarrollo perdieron un total de $ 946 mil millones por salidas ilícitas de divisas, con un aumento de 13,7% con respecto a 2010. Estos flujos ilícitos se generan en el crimen, la corrupción, la evasión tributaria y otras actividades ilegales.

http://www.revistagestion.ec/?p=11484

Mi cuento "El Ciborg con Alzheimer".

Mi cuento "El Ciborg con Alzheimer".  Agradecería comentarios y críticas.

http://latinamericanresources.blogspot.com/2014/02/el-ciborg-con-alzheimer-mi-cuento.html

Climate Change starts to take its toll

By Luis Fierro Carrión

[This is an English translation of the article published in Spanish in the February 2014 issue of “Revista Gestión”, Ecuador]

The devastating impact of typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines has highlighted once again how the Planet has begun to suffer the ravages of global warming. It is estimated that the typhoon (name given to tropical cyclones or hurricanes in the Western Pacific) caused more than 6,000 deaths and hundreds of thousands lost their homes and possessions, in the most severe cyclone on record, with winds reaching up to 315 kilometers per hour (equivalent to standing behind a turbine of a jet taking off).

Although the association between global warming and increased hurricane intensity is considered very likely but not a certainty, there is no doubt that the last decade has been the hottest in the historical record; the last 30 years have had the highest average temperature since at least the fourteenth century; and the global average temperature has already risen by 0.85 degrees Celsius since the nineteenth century.  There have been devastating storms in different continents, exacerbated by the high temperature of the water, a gradual rise in sea level, and the erosion and deterioration of the increasingly populated coasts of the Planet.

The impact of hurricanes Katrina and Sandy in the United States was also severe, not so much because of the intensity of the storms, but rather given the overflow of the seas, inundating land, and the destruction of dams, canals and other control mechanisms.

The frequency and cost of natural disasters has increased in recent decades, and one study estimated that if current trends in emissions and global warming continue, the losses in the U.S. alone due to climate disasters may increase from an average of $ 33 billion per year (in 1980-2012) to one trillion per year  (http://goo.gl/3W8k2O). The most expensive years to date in the U.S. have been 2005 with $ 160 billion in losses (four hurricanes, including Katrina) and 2012 ($ 110 billion in losses, including Hurricane Sandy and 10 other weather disasters – among them the drought in the Midwest) (http://goo.gl/67hfTg).

Even in the case of recent tsunamis (in Southeast Asia, Japan, etc.), which were caused by earthquakes, their impact may have been exacerbated by rising sea level and deterioration of coastal defenses. In Mexico, the unusual phenomenon of having simultaneous hurricanes on both coasts (Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean) occurred in late 2013, which caused 145 deaths and more than one million people affected.

We, humans, are to blame

A recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established with near certainty (95% probability) that global warming observed since 1950 is caused by human activities, in particular the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) (http://goo.gl/GjanIM).

The Arctic Ocean is losing 1 million square kilometers of ice every decade since 1979, and globally there has been a thaw of 226 Gt (gigatons) per decade in that period. It is estimated that by 2050 the Arctic will have thawed completely.

The concentration of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N20) has increased by 40%, 150% and 20% from their pre-industrial levels, reaching levels of 391 ppm (parts per million), 1803 ppb (parts per billion) and 324 ppb, respectively, in 2011. These levels have not been seen on Earth in the last 20,000 years.

If current policies are maintained, and nothing is done to control climate change, it is estimated that the global average temperature could rise by up to 4.8 degrees C by 2100 (and probably increase by at least 2 degrees C); and that the sea level could ​​rise up to 80 cm (although one projection indicates that the rise could reach one meter) (http://goo.gl/KH5eXv).

The Poles and Greenland will continue to melt, many species will disappear, there will be more intense heat waves and droughts, but at the same time also more severe floods and hurricanes.

In the area of ​​Ecuador, precipitation will increase significantly in the Galapagos Islands and the Coast, but is expected to fall in the Sierra and Amazon. The oceans are becoming more acidic, which is having a devastating effect on coral reefs.

At the same time, there are other more alarmist voices that state that if we are to have any chance of avoiding the most severe ravages of global warming, we must immediately reduce by 80% the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases generated by the consumption of fossil fuels. According to climatologist Bill McKibben (founder of www.350.org), for example, we should "keep in the ground” 80% of the hydrocarbon reserves that have already been identified, so that the increase in global average temperature does not exceed two degrees Celsius (http://goo.gl/CquxB3).

Unfortunately, recent international conferences on the subject have failed to establish a binding international commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for all nations of the Earth, in particular for the biggest emitters - China and the United States –, and have only set voluntary “goals”. The "Copenhagen Accord", which effectively set no target for emissions but at least did establish the "goal" to keep additional global warming at less than two degrees, was not ratified by several countries, including the ALBA nations.

McKibben notes that two countries which, in rhetoric, have expressed the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the need to combat global warming, in practice have massively expanded the exploration and exploitation of their vast reserves of tar sands: Canada and Venezuela (despite being on opposite ideological poles).

A less alarmist view (but still alarming) is that held by the environmental economist and Nobel Prize winner, William Nordhaus, who recently published the book "The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World". While Nordhaus believes that there is uncertainty about the impact of GHG emissions, he however considers that this uncertainty should prompt an even stronger reaction today (given that the consequences could be even more catastrophic than what we now envision).

Based on his conservative and pragmatic estimates, he indicates that we should be considering an immediate tax on the emissions of carbon dioxide (the so-called "carbon tax"), which would significantly drive up the current price of coal and other fossil fuels, and to continue increasing said tax gradually, until it is doubled in 2030. Another option would severely restrict or prohibit emissions from power plants based on coal (which the Obama administration recently restricted in the U.S., but China has not even considered).

Ecuadorian Climate Change Strategy

Ecuador's government developed a national strategy to tackle climate change (http://goo.gl/8t5o76). According to the document, the most severe impacts that will affect Ecuador are the following: 

• the intensification of extreme weather events such as those that occur due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon; 
• the rise in the sea level; 
• the glacier retreat in the snow-capped mountains of the Sierra; 
• the decrease in rainfall on agricultural land (runoff); 
• the increased transmission of dengue and other tropical diseases; 
• the expansion of populations of invasive species in Galapagos and other sensitive ecosystems of continental Ecuador; and 
• the extinction of species.

A worrisome example of extinction would be the disappearance of bees, which would affect agriculture and wildlife in general (quoted in El Comercio http://goo.gl/jmzrlj).

Paradoxically, there will be excessive rainfall in areas prone to flooding (such as the Coast), and drought in other areas (such as the Sierra). The IPCC estimates that the magnitude of El Niño is likely to increase, and rainfall in the equatorial waters of the Pacific will increase significantly.

Melting glaciers in the snow-capped mountains would affect the provision of drinking water for cities, especially in the Sierra, and could also affect hydropower generation. The glaciers are estimated to have already shrunk by 30 % since 1950. Between 1960 and 2006, the temperature in Ecuador also increased on average by 0.8 degrees C; rainfall levels increased by 33% in the Coast; 66% of natural disasters in the country are associated with rainfall, while 12% of the population lives in areas subject to flooding. The Strategy estimates that the country could face annual losses of $ 5,600 million from 2025 on, as a result of global warming, if mitigation measures are not adopted (p. 67 of the National Strategy).

The Ecuadorian government has submitted proposals to the “Conference of the Parties” on climate change (the last one, COP 19, was held in November in Warsaw, Poland), including the following: creating incentives for those who avoid emissions (e.g., leaving the crude in the ground, such as the now abandoned Yasuni initiative); recognizing the "rights of nature", as does the Montecristi Constitution; and the "Socio Bosque" plan to generate incentives for conservation of forests and vulnerable ecosystems.

Policies to address global warming

It is necessary to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels (oil, coal), and other energy sources that emit greenhouse gases. This can be achieved in three ways:

a) Increasing energy efficiency, i.e. reducing the amount of energy required to produce the same amount of goods and services;

b) Promoting savings, recycling, a civic culture to turn off the light and water when not being consumed, including the adoption of automated mechanisms to regulate the use of such services (as is common today in European hotels and buildings, for example).

c) Promoting clean energy sources such as hydropower, solar, wind, tidal, etc.

Environmentalists and international organizations have recommended the removal of fuel subsidies that prevail in many countries (especially oil exporters, including Ecuador), and rather establishing a "carbon tax" that would capture the cost of the negative externality that GHG emissions represent. If the price of fossil fuels increases significantly, consumers will definitely seek alternatives (which, on the other hand, could affect Ecuador on the income side).

It is also imperative to take adaptation and mitigation measures, such as not allowing construction in coastal areas prone to flooding; adopt strong regulations regarding construction in the land management plans, to prevent natural disasters; create barriers, dikes, walls containment and other mechanisms to reduce the risk of natural disasters; adopting clean technologies; and, in an extreme case, the possibility of adopting "geo-engineering" measures have been mentioned, such as launching particles into space that reflect sunlight .

There are grant and concessional resources available to developing countries to address climate change (the so-called "climate finance"), including multilateral development banks like the World Bank, the IDB and the European Investment Bank; the Global Environment Facility (GEF); the European Union; several bilateral development agencies (e.g., KfW, AFD, AECID, etc.). A new Green Climate Fund (GCF) is also been established. Unfortunately, the assistance offered by the U.S. government to Ecuador was suspended, following the government's refusal to sign the Copenhagen Declaration.

HOW TO SAVE ENERGY WHILE REDUCING EMISSIONS

Interview with Jorge Luis Hidalgo, General Manager of Greenpower and Business Development Manager of Carbon Masters Ltd Ecuador

How can the analysis of carbon footprint measurement contribute to the decrease in energy subsidies in the country?

The problem of climate change is not only an environmental issue but also a problem of economics, energy security and sustainability. Many organizations in Latin America, and particularly in Ecuador, are still not clear on what the opportunities and benefits are of an evaluation of the impact of their carbon footprint, as well as an analysis of how to reduce the carbon emissions within your organization.

Some think that the issue of climate change is something remote, but the reality is that it is not far off. If we adopted a State policy to promote efforts to reduce our carbon emissions, we could also help the Ecuadorian economy.

For this purpose, it is important to analyze the economic impact generated by energy prices (mainly hydrocarbons) and especially the level of subsidies spent in the country.

According to the Central Bank of Ecuador, in 2012 slightly more than 9 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) were consumed, for a value of approximately 645 million dollars; in subsidies for LPG the same year an amount of $560 million was spent, and only 10 % of the total is produced in Ecuador, so there is a significant outflow of resources.

Another even more worrisome example is diesel: in 2012, a little more than 17 million barrels were consumed, representing $2.3 billion. Which meant that only in subsidies in the same year $1.9 billion was spent, and we only have capacity to produce up to 40 % of diesel that the country needs. The rest is imported and also represents an outflow of funds. The total fuel subsidies in 2012 were $3.1 billion.

Many associate these subsidies with transportation and vehicles, but there are other important factors to analyze. Currently 45% of our electricity comes from thermal power, i.e. the burning of hydrocarbons. Most of the country's industries are subsidized except the ceramic, mining and oil sectors. In fact, in the industrial sector several companies require over $3 million dollars a year in subsidies.

If you think that as an individual you are not affected significantly by the subsidies, you should think again. The State can "give" the average family $ 1,000 to $ 3,000 in subsidized fuel for their vehicles in a year.

The problem is compounded when we look at population growth, industrial growth, and the increasing dependency on new technological applications. For example, an iPhone can consume more energy than a refrigerator in a year.

However, why not turn a "problem" into an opportunity? The first thing we do when facing a medical condition is to request that diagnostic tests be made. That is exactly what they do in Europe and other countries with regards to energy and emissions. These "tests" that are needed to analyze energy consumption are the "Carbon Footprint" analysis. From an energy audit for industries and organizations, we can begin to discover excellent opportunities for energy efficiency and cost efficiency.

As the saying goes, do good by doing well. But what can organizations do after measuring their carbon footprint?

Our advice is to start the journey towards a low carbon future, to reduce risks and generate environmental benefits, both at the firm level and at the macroeconomic level.

Our proposal is based on three main objectives:

1.    Energy efficiency (reduction of operating costs)

• Identify the parts of the operation or the production chain that generate emissions more intensively. An obvious example is the replacement of bulbs with energy saving bulbs.

2.  Use of energy resources that are friendlier to the environment and are within an economic logic.

• For example a change in highly carbon-intensive fuels such as burnt oil, bunker, diesel and LPG, to Natural Gas, which in addition to offering lower costs (up to 70% cost reduction), is also less intensive in GHG emissions than other hydrocarbons.

3.      Renewable Energy Sources

• There is much debate about the costs of renewable energy production. Nevertheless, there are economically attractive alternatives. For example, I consider that the national government is making a wise investment in hydropower, but there is much to be done in the production of biogas, solar energy, thermal power, wind, etc.

For Ecuador, it is strategic to redouble efforts to encourage industries and the general public to reduce their carbon footprint. This would generate cost efficiencies, reduce subsidies and have a lower environmental impact. It is for this reason that Carbon Masters (energy consultant) and Greenpower (engineering and technological change) are allied companies that are committed to helping the country and the industries in this endeavor.

Not enough high potential enterprises are created in Latin America

Summary of an article published in Spanish in Revista Gestión of Ecuador, Dec. 2013

By Luis Fierro Carrión

Latin America suffers from a problem of low productivity: the human and physical capital of the economies of the Region are not used adequately in the production of goods and services.  This phenomenon explains in part why the Region has not achieved more dynamic growth rates since the past century, which in turn has prevented its average income per capita to converge towards the levels observed in more advanced countries.

Among other factors, this low productivity is due to a relatively low level of creation and growth of enterprises of high productive potential.  Even the government of Ecuador has expressed its interest in promoting a “change of the productive matrix” to achieve higher levels of productivity, and, tied to this, higher income per capita.

The relative absence of high-growth companies in the Region is the main topic of the “Economic and Development Report” (RED 2013) of the Andean Development Bank (CAF) this year, with the title "Entrepreneurship in Latin America: From Subsistence to Productive Change" (http://goo.gl/QU9Z0d).

According to the report, what are the main causes of the low level of creation of enterprises with high productive potential in the Region?  

The study asserts that the small size of the companies and their poor growth dynamic is not due to the lack of individuals with entrepreneurial skills: that is, persons with a creative and innovative thought, with managerial skills, focused on results, and able to tolerate risks.

The document postulates the hypothesis that there is an “informality trap”:  “given the lack of employment opportunities in the formal productive sector, an important proportion of the individuals with relatively low entrepreneurial skills decide to open micro and small businesses, that not only generate low and unstable income, but that also prevents them from accumulating labor skills and capacities, which in turn reduces over time their potential to transition towards a formal sector employment”.

In this context, the proliferation of microenterprises becomes an obstacle for the “emergence of transformative new companies, and the expansion of the already existing ones, given that there is not the sufficient skilled labor force that would be needed in case these would grow at an elevated rate.  This situation places the region in a sort of informality and low productivity trap, in which there is no entrepreneurial growth because, among other things, there are no workers with the required skills and this, in turn, occurs because there are few companies that generate labor opportunities that would create disincentives for informal micro-entrepreneurship” (p. 5).

Another factor would be the lack of access to credit, and the absence of companies that can “spill” technological know-how in the different productive sectors.

According to the Report, some tax, credit, labor and social policies would have the effect of “limiting the growth of formal and high productivity enterprises, while incentives are generated for the creation and survival of microenterprises that only provide employment to their founder and perhaps some family members, and that usually have scarce added value”. For example, their high costs of firing workers would inhibit these small enterprises form hiring personnel from outside the family.

For the full article, please purchase or subscribe to Revista Gestión: http://www.revistagestion.ec/

Presence on social networks

Regarding my presence on "social networks", the number of contacts is somewhat inversely proportional to how "public" each site is:  470 connections on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/luisfierro/); 400 "friends" in Facebook; 147 "circle members" in Google+; 92 followers in Tweeter (@LatinoEconomist); 1 follower on this blog (http://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/)

The slowdown of the Chinese economy

A version of this article was published in Spanish in "Revista Gestión" (http://www.revistagestion.ec/).

The slowdown of the Chinese economy

By Luis Fierro Carrión

In recent months, alarm bells have been going off about the likely slowdown of the Chinese economy, which could have negative effects for the world economy, and in particular for commodity exporters such as Ecuador and other Latin American countries.

During 33 years (1979-2012), the average annual growth rate of China was close to 10 %, and it became the second largest economy in the world.  The GDP per capita increased from $250 in 1980 (measured in purchasing power parity) to $9,185 in 2012 - that is, it had a 36-fold increase!

This extraordinary growth reflected diverse trends:  the reincorporation of China into the world market; the capitalist development (within a Communist political regime); urbanization; industrialization; opening towards foreign direct investment and joint ventures, etc.  There were some particular characteristics of the hybrid Chinese model, such as the expansion of state-owned enterprises (SOE), financed by the equally state-owned development banks.

But in part this accelerated growth simply reflected starting off at such a low base, after many decades of economic stagnation, "cultural revolution", state ownership of the means of production, and military conflicts.

The official growth rate target for 2013 is 7.5 %, but it is likely that this figure will not be met.  The longer term prospects for the future are even less auspicious, as economists believe that China is entering into what is know as the "middle income growth trap".

The rapid urbanization process seems to have reached excessive levels, with high urban rates of pollution:  16 of the 20 most contaminated cities of the world are located in China, and the life expectancy in Northeastern China has started to decrease as a consequence of respiratory and other illnesses associated with pollution.

Workers are starting to demand higher salaries and better working conditions, which will make a model based on cheap labor untenable.  Investment - that is as high as 50 % of GDP - is facing decreasing returns, as the labor surplus is falling.  The Chinese stock market index (SSEA) has fallen by 8 % since December 2012.  The state-owned financial system is facing increasing disequilibrium   And the population is ageing, and growing at a slower rate (with the added problem of having more males than females).

The slowdown in China has already had a negative effect on the prices of commodities.  The price of metal products, for example, has fallen by 6.5 % thus far in 2013, and the price of gold by 26.2 %.  This has affected commodity producing countries, such as Australia, Brazil, Peru and Chile; and it could also affect oil exporters, if the same trend starts to be felt in the oil market (the price of the West Texas Intermediate benchmark has fallen by 7.9 % in the month to November 12, although it is still up for the year).

What can countries such as Ecuador do to confront the Chinese slowdown?  Diversify its productive matrix and its commercial partners; depend less on commodities, and more on the increase of productivity of manufacture and services; depend less, as well, on Chinese financing, which will probably become less available and more expensive as China experiences growing economic and financial difficulties.

Please help those affected by Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines

Please help those affected by Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines.  Donate to the Red Cross.

http://www.causes.com/campaigns/67101-help-those-affected-by-typhoon-haiyan-in-the-philippines

Oil demand could reach peak, oil prices could fall

By Luis Fierro Carrión

(A Spanish version of this article was written for Revista Gestión of Ecuador)

For several decades, some environmentalists and critics of the oil industry have warned that oil production could reach a "peak", due to - supposedly - its over-exploitation and decrease in reserves.  This "peak oil" phenomenon, however, has never materialized, and production has been increasing steadily, from 15 million barrels per day (mbd) in 1950, to about 60 mbd in 1980, and 89 mbd today.  The increase in the supply has taken place at the same time that the international price of crude oil has risen, reaching historical records in recent years.

In recent months, however, some analysts and institutions have begun to warn that, to the contrary, what we seem to be approaching is a "peak demand" for oil, as the global use of hydrocarbons seems to have reached a maximum.  Citi, for example, estimates that the demand could reach a maximum of 92 mbd within a few years, an analysis that coincides with the auto parts manufacturer Ricardo, and with the British magazine The Economist.  Even BP, one of the main oil multinationals, estimates that demand growth will decelerate, and reach a maximum of 104 mbd towards 2030.  The OECD and the World Bank also foresee an eventual reduction in the demand, and, consequently, a fall in the price of oil.

The fall in oil demand responds to several trends.  One of them is the development of new sources of energy, including shale oil and gas in North America and other regions; the expansion in renewable energy, especially in Europe, Japan, and North America; and even investment in nuclear energy in China and the Middle East. The production of shale gas in the United States and Canada, in particular, could enable North America to become self-sufficient within a few years.

Another important factor is the increase in energy efficiency, in areas such as transportation (hybrid vehicles, electric cars, and other technologies); in industry, at home, etc.  

Growth is also slowing down in the emerging markets, particularly among some of the BRICS (in China, India, and Brasil), and these countries are also investing in energy efficiency, renewable energy, and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The fall in demand and the increase in supply (both from crude oil and other energy sources) will probably lead to a substantial reduction in the international price of oil.

What can oil-exporting countries do to adapt to this scenario?  In general, they should have been investing the windfall revenues from the current high prices, through a sovereign investment fund (such as those in Norway or Kuwait), or directly in the generation of hydroelectric energy and other forms of renewable energy; as well as in the development of other sources of income. Another option is to expand the exploitation of natural gas, liquified petroleum gas, shale oil and gas, sand oil, and other sources of energy.  

Some oil exporters have very high subsidies on internal gasoline and gas consumption, which should be eliminated, or even reverted into a "carbon tax" (so as to discourage the over use of hydrocarbons, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and promote energy efficiency);  these energy subsidies also tend to be very regressive.

Ecuador was the country with lowest foreign direct investment in Latin America (as a % of the GDP)

Ecuador was the country with the lowest Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Latin America

Summary of the article by Luis Fierro Carrión published in Revista Gestión, No. 229 (July / Aug 2013).

Ecuador was the country in Latin America and the Caribbean that received the least amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as a proportion of GDP in 2012, according to a recent study by ECLAC.  According to this study (http://goo.gl/4QKKV), Ecuador received only 0.6 % of GDP as FDI, below countries such as Venezuela and Haiti.

In absolute terms, according to ECLAC, Ecuador received a total of $364 million in the period Jan.-Sept. 2012; according to more recent statistics by the Central Bank of Ecuador, the amount for all of 2012 was $586 million (http://goo.gl/WlMCq).  However, not all this amount represents new capital inflows.

According to the Central Bank, the new investments were only $227 milllion, whereas $ 300,6 million corresponded to reinvested profits, and $ 58.9 million to other capital (inter-company loans).  The preliminary data for 2012 reflect a reduction of 8.2 % with respect to 2011, and a reduction of 44 % in comparison to the amount reached in 2008 ($ 1,057 million).

ECLAC indicates in its report that the main countries of origin of FDI towards Ecuador were Mexico, CHina and Canada, and the main receiving sector was the exploitation of natural resources (oil and mines).

El Ecuador recibe menos inversión extranjera que Haití.

Por Luis Fierro Carrión

Edición No. 229 (Julio / Agosto 2013).

Sumario

El Ecuador fue el país de América Latina y el Caribe que menos inversión extranjera directa (IED) recibió en 2012, como porcentaje del PIB, de acuerdo a un reciente estudio de la Cepal. En efecto, de acuerdo a la publicación (http://goo.gl/4QKKV), el Ecuador recibió apenas 0,6% de su PIB como IED, por debajo de países como Venezuela y Haití. En términos absolutos, de acuerdo a la Cepal, el Ecuador recibió un total de $ 364 millones en el período enero – septiembre 2012; conforme a estadísticas más recientes del Banco Central del Ecuador (BCE), el monto para todo 2012 se estima en $ 586 millones (http://goo.gl/WlMCq). Este total no sólo representa flujos de nuevo capital invertido.

De acuerdo a las estadísticas del BCE, las nuevas inversiones representarían $ 227 millones, en tanto que $ 300,6 millones serían utilidades reinvertidas y $ 58,9 millones, otro capital (préstamos entre compañías). Los datos preliminares de 2012 reflejarían una caída de 8,2% con respecto a 2011, y una caída de 44% con respecto al monto alcanzado en 2008 ($ 1.057 millones).

Según el informe de la Cepal, los principales países de origen de la iED en el Ecuador fueron México, China y Canadá, y la explotación de recursos naturales fue el principal sector al que se dirigió.

Millionaires of the world, unite! Millonarios del mundo, uníos

Millionaires of the world, unite!

Summary of an article by Luis Fierro Carrión published in Revista Gestión of Ecuador, August 2013

An interesting article on the distribution of wealth in the world, and the scandalous concentration of wealth in the hands of millionaires and billionaires:  there are 12 million millionaires in the world, who jointly hold a fortune valued at $46.2 trillion.

North America influenced in the increase of the world population of High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) in 2012, with the highest growth rate (11.5 %), and reaching 3.73 million HNWI.  This displaced Asia Pacific to second place, with a growth rate of 9.4 %, and 3.68 millionaires.

The article includes details on the countries with the highest number of millionaires, the global distribution of wealth; the investment strategies followed by HNWI; the fiscal policies adopted in some of the OECD countries; and an overview of fiscal evasion at an international level.

Interesting facts:

• High net worth individuals or HNWI are those who have net assets or equity that they can invest, of at least US$ 1 million.

• Latin America's growth rate in millionaires slowed down, and it only grew by 4.4 % in  2012.

• Over 50% of the world's millionaires are in three countries:  USA, Japan and Germany.

• The global population of millionaires (12 million) is equivalent to 0.17 % of the population.

• Their participation in total world wealth (net assets) is 32,1%.

• During the first quarter of 2013, only 45,4% of these individuals trusted in financial markets.

• An excessive level of inequality, aside from being a problem from an ethical point of view, may also lead to growing social and political instability.

• Fiscal evasion is estimated at more than $100 billion in the USA.

http://www.revistagestion.ec/?p=6401

Millonarios del mundo, uníos.

Por Luis Fierro Carrión

Revista Gestión, Edición 230 (Agosto / Septiembre 2013).

Sumario.

Un interesante artículo sobre la distribución de la riqueza en el mundo y escandalosa concentración en manos de millonarios y multimillonarios: hay 12 millones de millonarios en el mundo, quienes en conjunto tienen una fortuna valorada en $ 46,2 millones de millones (trillones en inglés, billones en castellano —se usa billones en el artículo—).

Norteamérica influyó en el aumento de la población mundial de los individuos de alto patrimonio (High NetWorth Individuals o HNWI), al registrar la tasa de crecimiento más alta (11,5%) y alcanzar los 3,73 millones de HNWI. De esta forma, la región volvió a tener la mayor cantidad de millonarios, superando a Asia Pacífico, que aumentó 9,4% y alcanzó los 3,68 millones de personas.

Incluye detalles sobre los países con mayor número de millonarios, la distribución global de la riqueza, estrategias de inversión de individuos de alto patrimonio y políticas fiscales adoptadas en algunos países, así como un panorama de la evasión fiscal a nivel internacional.

Datos de interés:

• High net worth individuals o HNWI (individuos de alto patrimonio) son aquellos que disponen de un patrimonio o activo neto susceptible de inversión de al menos $ 1 millón.

• Hay 12 millones de millonarios en el mundo.

• Tienen una fortuna valorada en $ 46,2 millones de millones.

• Norteamérica tiene 3,73 millones de individuos con alto patrimonio. Es la región con mayor número de millonarios.

• América Latina se ralentizó y creció solo 4,4% en 2012.

• Más de 50% de los millonarios del mundo está en tres países: EEUU, Japón y Alemania.

• La población global de millonarios (12 millones) es 0,17% de la población mundial.

• Su participación en la riqueza mundial (activos netos) es de 32,1%.

• Durante el primer trimestre de 2013, solo 45,4% de estos individuos confiaba en los mercados financieros.

• “Una excesiva desigualdad, aparte de ser problemática desde un punto de vista ético o moral, también puede conllevar mayor inestabilidad social y política”.

• La evasión tributaria se estima en al menos $ 100 mil millones en EEUU.