By Luis Fierro Carrion (@Luis_Fierro_Eco)
(English translation of the article published in "El Universo" on February 6, 2020)
The average global temperature registered in 2019 its second highest level in history, barely tenths of a grade below the record set in 2016. The last five years and the last decade have also been the hottest since records are kept.
Global warming is due to the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane gas. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 350 parts per million in 1990 to 411 in 2019.
The increase in GHG emissions is mainly due to the use of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal, etc.), and to a lesser extent to deforestation, agricultural and industrial activities.
We have already reached an increase of 1.1 degrees Celsius with respect to the pre-industrial average temperature, and in the Paris Agreement the countries of the world promised to restrict the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees, or at most to 2 degrees.
However, in accordance with the commitments assumed by the countries (through the “Nationally Determined Contributions” or NDC), an increase of at least 3 degrees C is projected until the year 2100.
With the temperature increase that has already occurred, we have begun to suffer catastrophic effects:
- Massive fires in Australia, Brazil, Bolivia, the United States and other countries.
- Rise of the sea levels (due to the melting of the ice at the poles and Greenland). This already threatens several countries and regions that are a few meters above sea level, such as Kiribati, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Bangladesh or the states of Florida and Louisiana in the United States.
- Fluctuations in the rain, which causes droughts in some regions and floods in others.
- Melting glaciers and snow-capped mountains.
- Intensification of hurricanes and tropical cyclones.
- Increase of epidemics of tropical diseases (dengue, Zika, malaria, etc.).
- Expansion of invasive species and extinction of endemic species.
Although Ecuador generates only 0.11% of global emissions (less than its participation in the global population or GDP), in the Paris Agreement all countries expressed their commitment to reduce their GHG emissions.
In Ecuador's climate plan proposal (NDC), there was no commitment for an absolute emission reduction, only sector programs and policies, such as the increase in renewable energy generation or reforestation plans (despite which Ecuador is currently the country in Latin America that deforests the most, as a percentage).
Before the last presidential elections, I published, as part of an initiative of Grupo FARO and Ecuador Decide, “Promote Sustainable and Low-Emission Development, with Greater Resilience to Climate Change” (Grupo FARO, Quito, 2017).
In this document I proposed public policies to address the problem, such as:
- Ratification of the Paris Agreement (the current government did it).
- Reduction or elimination of fossil fuel subsidies (partially achieved in the governments of Correa and Moreno).
- Promote solar, wind, geothermal, tidal and small hydroelectric energy (large hydroelectric plants emit methane gas from their dams, especially in tropical areas).
- Promote greater energy efficiency.
- Provide incentives for electric vehicles and mass public transport (metro, tramways and electric buses).
- Promote actions to adapt to climate change, including more resilient infrastructure.
- Improve the management of solid waste, including the capture of methane gas for electricity generation.
- Constitute an investment fund to face climate change, which channels national and international resources (a small fund has been set up to replace the National Environmental Fund that former President Correa eliminated).
There are concessional, and even non-refundable, funds available to deal with climate change. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), CAF, the World Bank, the Green Climate Fund, the French Development Agency (AFD), the German Development Bank (KfW) and the European Investment Bank, among others, finance mitigation and adaptation programs and projects, and there are initiatives to channel these resources towards decentralized autonomous governments and the private sector. Banco Pichincha issued the first Green Bond in Ecuador, in 2019, with the support of IDB Invest, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Proparco (the private sector branch of AFD).
Original article in Spanish: https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/2020/02/03/nota/7721430/ecuador-cambio-climatico
The graph shows the temperature anomalies in 2014-2018. Higher than normal temperatures are shown in red, and lower than normal temperatures are shown in blue.
