These two articles list 9 different economists that predicted the 2008 Great Recession fairly accurately.
https://www.ft.com/content/452dc484-9bdc-11de-b214-00144feabdc0
https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2015/07/07/6-economists-who-predicted-the-global-financial-crisis-and-why-we-should-listen-to-them-from-now-on
In a note I wrote in Facebook (remember "Notes"?), I also mention that Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz had written about the housing bubble, the growing concern with mortgage backed securities and the financial sector.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/luis-fierro/krugman-stiglitz-and-economic-predictions/35305544241/
Now, several economists (including me) are warning that there are growing signs of an upcoming recession. These include:
- overvalued stock market, at twice the historical average cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE)
- a new housing bubble
- growing personal, corporate and public debt
- rise in loan delinquencies and mortgage fraud
- interest rates are close to "inversion" (long term rates lower than short-term rates).
- lower long-term confidence.
- past due a recession based on the solar cycle models.
To these cyclical factors, we have to add the impact of Trump's trade wars; as well as the effect on oil prices of Trump's reneging on the Iran nuclear deal, and the collapse of oil production in Venezuela.
Here are some other signs:
https://www.gobankingrates.com/making-money/economy/recession-warning-signs/#3
So please, in 2020, I hope they won't say nobody saw the recession coming!
