Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Why is the yen rising?

Can someone please explain to me why the yen keeps rising?

The ratio of public debt to GDP is approaching 200 %, more than twice the OECD average.

Public finances are in disarray, the ruling "Liberal Democratic Party" will soon lose power, the economic rebound is very weak, exports and industrial output have not recovered, and Japan is losing market share to other Asian companies.

Even with a slip today versus major currencies, the yen seems to be grossly overvalued. I would expect the euro to strengthen, in particular due to the improving economic fortunes of Germany and France, and their relatively modest stimulus packages (and deficit).

But I would still suggest investing in inflation-protected equities, as mentioned in a previous entry.

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