Friday, August 14, 2009

Economy on the rebound

The green shoots are taking hold.

The Economist cover story focuses on the Asian rebound.

Germany and France have crept out of recession, growing by 0.3 % in the second quarter.

The U.S. showed a much slower contraction (-1.0 %) in the second quarter.

And the manufacturing sector is definitely on the mend:

"surveys of managers on the "front line" in the sector in the UK, the US and the eurozone released yesterday all show a marked improvement in sentiment in what has been the hardest pressed part of the global economy".

In the US, "the ISM confidence index improved for the seventh consecutive month in July, increasing to 48.9 from 44.8 in June, well above the market's expectations for a 46.5 reading and the record low of 37.4 set last November. Again, the figures attracted cautious optimism form observers. Julia Coronado, economist at BNP Paribas said; "We continue to expect modest growth in economic activity in the second half of the year as the record correction in inventories slows and the auto sector reopens after an extended shutdown. That said, we expect growth to be subdued as consumer and business demand are expected to recover more slowly than in previous cycles."

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