Friday, August 3, 2018

Many economists see a recession coming (as they did in 2007)

I always get peeved when I read that "there were no economists that saw the 2008 Great Recession coming".

These two articles list 9 different economists that predicted the 2008 Great Recession fairly accurately.

https://www.ft.com/content/452dc484-9bdc-11de-b214-00144feabdc0

https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2015/07/07/6-economists-who-predicted-the-global-financial-crisis-and-why-we-should-listen-to-them-from-now-on

In a note I wrote in Facebook (remember "Notes"?), I also mention that Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz had written about the housing bubble, the growing concern with mortgage backed securities and the financial sector.

https://www.facebook.com/notes/luis-fierro/krugman-stiglitz-and-economic-predictions/35305544241/

Now, several economists (including me) are warning that there are growing signs of an upcoming recession. These include:

- overvalued stock market, at twice the historical average cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE)

- a new housing bubble

- growing personal, corporate and public debt

- rise in loan delinquencies and mortgage fraud

- interest rates are close to "inversion" (long term rates lower than short-term rates).

- lower long-term confidence.

- past due a recession based on the solar cycle models.

To these cyclical factors, we have to add the impact of Trump's trade wars; as well as the effect on oil prices of Trump's reneging on the Iran nuclear deal, and the collapse of oil production in Venezuela.

Here are some other signs:

https://www.gobankingrates.com/making-money/economy/recession-warning-signs/#3

So please, in 2020, I hope they won't say nobody saw the recession coming!


Nuevo estudio sobre programas de formación para la internacionalización de las Pymes de América Latina

Nueva publicación de la Fundación EU-LAC Foundation sobre las Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas Latinoamericanas y los dispositivos de capacitación y formación para su internacionalización.‬

Estudio de CERALE ESCP Europe con apoyo de la Fundación y del Institut des Amériques

Tuve el gusto de participar en su edición.




Autores del capitulo sobre #Ecuador:Wilson Araque, Andrés Arguello y Germán Granda, Universidad Andina Simón Bolívar - Sede Ecuador