tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2999931066144314742023-12-18T16:15:48.917-08:00Economics And InvestmentFocus on Economics, Finance, Investment, Development, Climate Change and Public Policies.Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.comBlogger271125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-28041901084034331332023-12-18T16:15:00.000-08:002023-12-18T16:15:15.979-08:00Top 12 Substack posts of 2023 / 12 posts de Substack más leídos en 2023<p> As 2023 comes to a close, a look back at the top 12 posts on Substack this year. Also, of note, I now have 32 free subscribers (though, alas, no paid subscriber yet - for the cost of a latte you can support my writing!).</p><p>Los 12 posts más populares de 2023 en Substack:</p><p>12. El Ciborg con Alzheimer (cuento)</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/el-ciborg-con-alzheimer">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/el-ciborg-con-alzheimer</a></p><p>The Cyborg with Alzheimer's, a short story:</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/the-cyborg-with-alzheimers">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/the-cyborg-with-alzheimers</a></p><p>11. Impacto del Mecanismo de Ajuste en Frontera por Carbono de la UE</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/impacto-del-mecanismo-de-ajuste-en">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/impacto-del-mecanismo-de-ajuste-en</a></p><p>On the impact of the EU CBAM:</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/impact-of-the-eu-carbon-border-adjustment">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/impact-of-the-eu-carbon-border-adjustment</a></p><p>10. Real income, real wages are rising under Bidenomics</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/real-income-real-wages-are-rising">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/real-income-real-wages-are-rising</a></p><p>Sobre el aumento de los ingresos reales en EE.UU; también disponible en español:</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/los-ingresos-reales-y-los-salarios">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/los-ingresos-reales-y-los-salarios</a></p><p>9. Competencia por atraer inmigrantes</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competencia-por-atraer-inmigrantes">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competencia-por-atraer-inmigrantes</a></p><p>In English:</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competition-to-attract-immigrants">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competition-to-attract-immigrants</a></p><p>8. Publications on climate finance and sustainable development</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/publications-on-climate-finance-and">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/publications-on-climate-finance-and</a></p><p>7. Capítulo 1 de mi novela "El Último Humano"</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/capitulo-1-de-mi-novela-el-ultimo">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/capitulo-1-de-mi-novela-el-ultimo</a></p><p>Chapter 1 of my novel, "The Last Human"</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/chapter-1-of-my-novel-the-last-human">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/chapter-1-of-my-novel-the-last-human</a></p><p>6. Siete veces Si en el Referendo</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/siete-veces-si-en-el-referendo">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/siete-veces-si-en-el-referendo</a></p><p>On the referendum in Ecuador</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/seven-times-yes-in-the-referendum">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/seven-times-yes-in-the-referendum</a></p><p>5. Arauz y la ecua(des)dolarización</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/arauz-y-la-ecuadesdolarizacion">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/arauz-y-la-ecuadesdolarizacion</a></p><p>On Vice-presidential candidate Arauz and his proposals to eliminate dollarization:</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/arauz-and-the-ecuadedollarization">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/arauz-and-the-ecuadedollarization</a></p><p>4. Un año de la invasión rusa a Ucrania</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/un-ano-de-la-invasion-rusa-a-ucrania">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/un-ano-de-la-invasion-rusa-a-ucrania</a></p><p>One year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/one-year-of-the-russian-invasion">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/one-year-of-the-russian-invasion</a></p><p>3. Respuesta al Embajador Ruso (respuesta a artículo anterior)</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/un-ano-de-la-invasion-rusa-a-ucrania">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/un-ano-de-la-invasion-rusa-a-ucrania</a></p><p>My response to the Russian Ambassador (response to previous article)</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/my-response-to-the-russian-ambassador">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/my-response-to-the-russian-ambassador</a></p><p>2. Prohibido olvidar II (recordando al régimen de Rafael Correa)</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/prohibido-olvidar-ii">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/prohibido-olvidar-ii</a></p><p>Forbidden to Forget II (the Correa regime in Ecuador)</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/forbidden-to-forget-ii">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/forbidden-to-forget-ii</a></p><p><br /></p><p>And the top post of 2023 / y el post más leído en 2023:</p><p>1. Luisa te Venezuelaniza (sobre la candidata presidencial en Ecuador, Luisa González)</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/luisa-te-venezuelaniza">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/luisa-te-venezuelaniza</a></p><p>About presidential candidate Luisa González, in English:</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/luisa-venezuelanizes-you">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/luisa-venezuelanizes-you</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Remember you can subscribe (for free).</p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-42751559325012923492023-04-19T07:44:00.002-07:002023-04-19T07:44:18.339-07:00Competition to attract immigrants<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">By Luis Fierro Carrión </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">While the headlines are full of stories of undocumented immigrants trying to enter the United States or Europe, the real crisis facing developed countries is that they don't have enough immigrants.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">This situation became evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it is estimated that the entry of immigrants (mainly Latin Americans) to the US fell by close to two million people, which contributed to a labor market in which there are almost two vacancies for every unemployed person, and upward pressure on wages (which, in turn, has led to higher inflation). Another factor was the deaths and chronic diseases derived from the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">The lack of personnel was especially noticeable in the area of health care (doctors, physician assistants, nurses, laboratory personnel, etc.), which led to the creation of special programs to attract health specialists. But it has also become evident in areas such as information technology, agriculture, restaurants, hotels, construction, child care and elder care, among others.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Read more:</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competition-to-attract-immigrants">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competition-to-attract-immigrants</a></span></span></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-37784480584339585342023-04-19T07:42:00.004-07:002023-04-19T07:42:36.607-07:00Competencia por atraer inmigrantes<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">Por Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</span></p><div><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Mientras que los titulares de la prensa están llenos de historias de inmigrantes indocumentados tratando de ingresar a Estados Unidos o Europa, la verdadera crisis que enfrentan los países desarrollados es que no tienen suficientes inmigrantes.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Esta situación se puso de evidencia durante la pandemia de COVID-19, cuando se estima que el ingreso de inmigrantes (principalmente latinoamericanos) a EE.UU. cayó en cerca de dos millones de personas, lo cual ha creado un mercado laboral en el cual hay casi dos vacantes por cada persona desocupada, y se está generando presión al alza para los salarios (lo cual, a su vez, ha repercutido en mayor inflación). Otro factor fueron las muertes y enfermedades crónicas derivadas de la pandemia.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">La carencia de personal se notó en especial en el área de cuidados de salud (doctores, asistentes médicos, enfermeros, personal de laboratorio, etc.), lo cual llevó a programas especiales para atraer especialistas de salud. Pero también se ha puesto en evidencia en áreas como informática, agricultura, restauración, hotelería, construcción, cuidado infantil y para personas de la tercera edad, etc.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Leer más:</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competencia-por-atraer-inmigrantes">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/competencia-por-atraer-inmigrantes</a></span></span></p></div>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-79579822193487511772023-04-19T07:40:00.006-07:002023-04-19T07:40:45.691-07:00Capítulo 1 de mi novela "El Último Humano"<p><span style="background-color: white;">E</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">staré publicando cada mes un capítulo de mi novela “El último humano” (en español e inglés), para mis suscriptores pagados en Substack. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">Se trata de una novela de ciencia ficción o eco-thriller, que reflexiona sobre las amenazas existenciales que se ciernen sobre la humanidad. Este primer capítulo es gratuito para todos. También puedes adquirir la novela en:</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/%C3%BAltimo-humano-Spanish-Fierro-Carri%C3%B3n-ebook/dp/B09DTHBQYJ" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">https://www.amazon.com/%C3%BAltimo-humano-Spanish-Fierro-Carri%C3%B3n-ebook/dp/B09DTHBQYJ</a></p><h1 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;">1. El último día<div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§el-ultimo-dia" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; height: 44.0774px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: -72px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 72px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/i/106039380/el-ultimo-dia" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h1><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Ellos tenían razón: no debíamos haber destruido nuestro planeta.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Ya en 2015, algunos seres humanos habían advertido de los riesgos del calentamiento global, del ascenso de la inteligencia artificial, de conflictos militares entre potencias armadas con bombas nucleares, de las pandemias y del fanatismo religioso expresado en acciones terroristas.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/capitulo-1-de-mi-novela-el-ultimo">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/capitulo-1-de-mi-novela-el-ultimo</a></span></span></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-21791623005009593902023-04-19T07:39:00.003-07:002023-04-19T07:39:24.676-07:00Chapter 1 of my novel, "The Last Human"<p>I <span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">will be publishing each month one chapter of my novel “The Last Human” (in Spanish and English), for my paid SubStack subscribers. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">The novel is a science fiction novel or eco-thriller, pondering on the existential threats to humanity. This first chapter is free for all. You can also purchase the novel at:</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><a href="https://www.amazon.es/Last-Human-English-Luis-Fierro-ebook/dp/B09D45JFK8" rel="nofollow ugc noopener" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">https://www.amazon.es/Last-Human-English-Luis-Fierro-ebook/dp/B09D45JFK8</a></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><h2 class="header-with-anchor-widget" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; -webkit-font-smoothing: subpixel-antialiased; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: var(--font_family_headings, var(--font_family_headings_preset, "SF Compact Display", -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol")); font-size: 1.625em; font-weight: var(--font_weight_headings_preset, bold); line-height: 1.16em; margin: 1em 0px 0.625em; position: relative;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">1. The Last Day</strong><div class="header-anchor-widget offset-top" id="§the-last-day" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; height: 35.8135px; left: -56px; position: absolute; top: -72px; width: 56px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button-container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; display: flex; height: 1.2em; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 72px; width: 40px;"><div class="header-anchor-widget-button" href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/i/106036287/the-last-day" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border-radius: 50%; cursor: pointer; display: flex; height: 40px; justify-content: center; opacity: 0; width: 40px;"><svg class="header-anchor-widget-icon" fill="none" height="20" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" stroke="currentColor" viewbox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></div></div></div></h2><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">They were right: We should not have destroyed our planet.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Some people had warned us since 2015 about the risks of global warming; the rise of artificial intelligence; military conflicts between nuclear powers; pandemics; and religious extremism expressed in terrorism.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Read more:</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/chapter-1-of-my-novel-the-last-human">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/chapter-1-of-my-novel-the-last-human</a></span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-4155506720414447802023-02-27T09:07:00.002-08:002023-02-27T09:07:44.295-08:00Respuesta al Embajador Ruso<p>Embajador ruso en Ecuador repite mentiras y desinformación del gobierno ruso</p><p>Luis Fierro Carrión</p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []">El Embajador ruso en el Ecuador, Vladimir Sprinchan, ha enviado una carta de respuesta a mi columna titulada “Un año de la invasión rusa”, publicada en el Diario “El Universo” el 17 de febrero.</p><p><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/un-ano-de-la-invasion-rusa-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/un-ano-de-la-invasion-rusa-nota/</a></p><p>La carta repite las mismas mentiras, falsedades, desinformación y propaganda del gobierno ruso, sobre los supuestos “neonazis” de Ucrania que “atacaban” a Rusia.</p><p>Aquí una versión más extensa de mi replica (ya que en el diario había espacio muy limitado):</p><p>Es difícil saber cómo responder a la carta del Señor Embajador de la Federación Rusa, ya que está plagada de tantas falsedades y desinformación, que pueden rebatirse usando cualquier medio de información medianamente objetivo y de reputación.</p><p>El actual gobierno de Ucrania no es un régimen “neonazi”. Es un gobierno electo democráticamente por una mayoría sustancial de los electores ucranianos; es un gobierno liberal y democrático que busca integrarse a la Unión Europea. El Presidente Zelenzky es judío, por lo cual es hasta risible el calificativo.</p><p>Ucrania nunca ha invadido ni un centímetro de Rusia; el gobierno ruso y sus aliados invadieron a Crimea y ciertas zonas del Donbas en 2014; han continuado hostigando y atacando a Ucrania desde entonces; y el 24 de febrero de 2022 lanzaron una invasión masiva, sin ninguna justificación ni provocación.</p><p>Es público y notorio que las fuerzas armadas rusas han disparado misiles y drones contra las instalaciones de generación eléctrica de Ucrania, lo cual es infraestructura civil, con el fin de aterrorizar y hacer pasar penurias a la población civil. </p><p>Además, es evidente que han destruido edificios residenciales, escuelas, hospitales y otra infraestructura civil, sin ningún uso militar. Hay evidencia de torturas, violaciones, asesinatos de civiles desarmados, y el secuestro de ciudadanos ucranianos, incluyendo 14.000 niños, que han sido llevados a territorios rusos. Todos estos son crímenes de guerra, por los cuales eventualmente tendrán que pagar los culpables.</p><p>El Señor Embajador parece ignorar que en tres ocasiones (la más reciente la semana pasada) la gran mayoría de los países (141) han condenado la invasión rusa en la Asamblea General de Naciones Unidas. Votaron a favor de Rusia apenas 6 países, incluyendo los dictadores de Corea del Norte, Bielorrusia, Nicaragua y Siria.</p><p>Tenemos así a 141 naciones (la mayoría democráticas y liberales) contra 7 regímenes autoritarios, dictatoriales y fascistoides. Lo cual parece demostrar lo que afirmé en mi columna inicial, del conflicto entre democracia liberal y autoritarismo.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7yR8iKqq9ph936DZHM3xWwYLf-jixyCyU073Qea39tibXH2Ue16kZoERirvVRtydtj56pCYCVYSIT4y6aaJERIzcvd0Ubad6q7OA2tIVaZXFmP4u-eIqgCvMnYqgk0EQG-1BN3jpAlnyhpe0Y0dwWVJ_lUOrhNg_DEMy0I9a_Ffu84ACKcAA0Ue7lhg/s1260/Civiles%20ucranianos%20muertos.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1260" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7yR8iKqq9ph936DZHM3xWwYLf-jixyCyU073Qea39tibXH2Ue16kZoERirvVRtydtj56pCYCVYSIT4y6aaJERIzcvd0Ubad6q7OA2tIVaZXFmP4u-eIqgCvMnYqgk0EQG-1BN3jpAlnyhpe0Y0dwWVJ_lUOrhNg_DEMy0I9a_Ffu84ACKcAA0Ue7lhg/w400-h266/Civiles%20ucranianos%20muertos.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Civiles asesinados en Bucha, Ucrania; algunos con las manos o las piernas atadas. </p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-28691500479668512322023-01-20T11:08:00.001-08:002023-01-20T11:08:09.342-08:00Siete veces sí en el Referendo de Ecuador<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Mi columna en el Diario "El Universo". </span></span></p><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="f0s8s" data-offset-key="8pg15-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8pg15-0-0" style="direction: ltr; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: relative;"><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="color: #050505; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Al margen de su opinión sobre el gobierno, se debe votar a favor de la extradición, la autonomía de la Fiscalía, la compensación por servicios ambientales, eliminar papel de CPCCS en nombrar autoridades de control.</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Otras preguntas que ameritan el "Sí":</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="color: #050505; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="f0s8s" data-offset-key="a3qik-0-0" style="color: #0f1419;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="a3qik-0-0" style="direction: ltr; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="a3qik-0-0"><span style="font-family: georgia;">- reducir el número de Asambleístas</span></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="f0s8s" data-offset-key="4hgjc-0-0" style="color: #0f1419;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="4hgjc-0-0" style="direction: ltr; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="4hgjc-0-0"><span style="font-family: georgia;">- reducir el número de movimientos políticos (auditando su membrecía).</span></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="f0s8s" data-offset-key="5v1ne-0-0" style="color: #0f1419;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="5v1ne-0-0" style="direction: ltr; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="5v1ne-0-0"><span style="font-family: georgia;">- creación de un subsistema de protección hídrica</span></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="f0s8s" data-offset-key="2l0cu-0-0" style="color: #0f1419;"></div></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">La <a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer;" tabindex="-1"></a>única pregunta con la que no coincido es que la Asamblea nombre al CPCCS. Mientras no se elimine este Consejo, preferible su elección democrática </span></div></div></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="f0s8s" data-offset-key="a3qik-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="a3qik-0-0" style="direction: ltr; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: relative;"><br /></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="f0s8s" data-offset-key="2l0cu-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="2l0cu-0-0" style="direction: ltr; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: relative;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Leer más en SubStack:</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="2l0cu-0-0" style="direction: ltr; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="2l0cu-0-0"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="f0s8s" data-offset-key="7dq1j-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="7dq1j-0-0" style="direction: ltr; overflow: hidden; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 2px; position: relative;"><span style="color: #1d9bf0;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/siete-veces-si-en-el-referendo</span></span></div></div>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-71454196090748261012022-12-30T05:25:00.001-08:002022-12-30T05:25:29.767-08:00My social media presence<p><span style="color: #cc6600; font-size: 18.2px;">My annual review of social media accounts. New entrants: Mastodon and Substack.</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-6552901683513049796" itemprop="description articleBody" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div><br /></div><div>Still first: LinkedIn (2,788 followers)</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/luisfierro/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.linkedin.com/in/luisfierro/</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Second: my restricted Twitter account (2,167 followers)</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/Luis_Fierro_Eco" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">https://twitter.com/Luis_Fierro_Eco</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Third: my open Twitter account (816 followers) (would really prefer to be followed here)</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://twitter.com/Luis_Fierro_C" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">https://twitter.com/Luis_Fierro_C</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Fourth: My Facebook account (481 friends and 191 followers)</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.facebook.com/luisfierro/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.facebook.com/luisfierro/</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Fifth: My Instagram account (196 followers). Should post more frequently</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.instagram.com/luis_fierro_eco/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.instagram.com/luis_fierro_eco/</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Sixth: My public page on Facebook (politics/policies/writing) (96 followers)</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.facebook.com/LuisFierro51/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.facebook.com/LuisFierro51/</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Seventh: My new Mastodon account (which I opened mainly in case Twitter collapses) (60 followers)</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://econtwitter.net/@Luis_Fierro">https://econtwitter.net/@Luis_Fierro</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Eighth: My new Substack account, opened on November 23rd (8 subscribers thus far, I hope this increases massively).</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/">https://luisfierro.substack.com/</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Ninth: Blog: 4 followers (although hundreds read posts)</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">http://economicsandinvestment.blogspot.com/</a></div><div><br /></div><div>Tenth: YouTube Channel: 2 followers (politics/policies)</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYoeV1DxCKLZEyiZr7Gx6jg" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYoeV1DxCKLZEyiZr7Gx6jg</a></div><div><br /></div><div>The least successful are those that could be monetized. I guess I should pay more attention to them. </div><div><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13px;" /></div></div>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-76461507731667874592022-12-29T08:30:00.001-08:002022-12-29T08:30:13.709-08:00Top 10 blog-Substack posts of 2022 / 10 posts de blog y Substack más leídos<p><span style="font-size: medium;">On November 23, 2022, I started a Substack account:</span></p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com"><span style="font-size: medium;">https://luisfierro.substack.com</span></a></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Until then, I posted my articles on this blog.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Here are the top 10 posts in 2022 (combined from both sites):</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">___</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">El 23 de Noviembre de 2022, inicié una cuenta de Substack.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Hasta entonces, publicaba mis artículos en este blog.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Aquí los 10 artículos más leídos de 2022:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"># 10 Financing the energy transition in #Ecuador </span></p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/financing-energy-transition-in-ecuador"><span style="font-size: medium;">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/financing-energy-transition-in-ecuador</span></a></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"># 9 Presentation on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement and Climate Finance </span></p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/presentation-on-climate-change-the"><span style="font-size: medium;">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/presentation-on-climate-change-the</span></a></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">#8<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>The End of the World </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/the-end-of-world"><span style="font-size: medium;">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/the-end-of-world</span></a></div></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">#7<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>China, Taiwan and the USA </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/china-taiwan-and-usa"><span style="font-size: medium;">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/china-taiwan-and-usa</span></a></div></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">#6 <span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Economic Relations between the European Union,
Latin America and the Caribbean</span></span></div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/economic-relations-between-european">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/economic-relations-between-european</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;">#5</span><span style="font-size: large; white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="font-size: large;">The "Wired" magazine 1997 predictions (and my predictions for 2064) </span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/the-wired-magazine-1997-predictions-and"><span style="font-size: medium;">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/the-wired-magazine-1997-predictions-and</span></a></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">#4.<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Limits of democracy in the US </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/limits-of-democracy-in-us">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/limits-of-democracy-in-us</a></span></div></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">#3. <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Comunismo indoamericano es barbarie</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/comunismo-indoamericano-es-barbarie">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/comunismo-indoamericano-es-barbarie</a></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">#2. Putin's Defeat </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/putins-defeat">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/putins-defeat</a></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">And my top post of 2022 / y mi artículo más leído en 2022:</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">#1. War and Economy </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/war-and-economy">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/war-and-economy</a> </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">Happy New Year! Feliz Año Nuevo!</span></div>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-47801395711271197592022-12-16T07:00:00.002-08:002022-12-16T07:00:09.128-08:00Autogolpe fallido de Pedro Castillo en Perú<p> Castillo intenta disolver el Congreso, y termina destituido y preso</p><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Por Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</p><p>Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C</p><p>El miércoles 7 de diciembre, a las 11:48 de la mañana, el Presidente del Perú, Pedro Castillo, leyó temblorosamente un discurso en el que instaba a “disolver temporalmente el Congreso de la República”, “instaurar un gobierno de emergencia excepcional” y “convocar en el más breve plazo elecciones para un nuevo Congreso con facultades constituyentes”.</p><p>En el mismo mensaje, declaró en “reorganización el sistema de justicia, el Poder Judicial, el Ministerio Público, la Junta Nacional de Justicia y el Tribunal Constitucional”. El breve mensaje significaba que estaba lanzando un autogolpe de Estado.</p><p>Emulaba, de manera torpe y tembleque, el autogolpe de Alberto Fujimori que tuvo lugar el domingo 5 de abril de 1992. En este evento se disolvió por la fuerza el Congreso de la República, se intervino el Poder Judicial, el Consejo Nacional de la Magistratura, el Tribunal de Garantías Constitucionales, el Ministerio Público y la Contraloría General de la República. Fujimori también convocó a elecciones para un Congreso Constituyente, que produjo la Constitución que se encuentra vigente.</p><p>La diferencia entre uno y otro autogolpe es que Fujimori contaba con el apoyo de las Fuerzas Armadas.</p><p>Leer más:</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/autogolpe-fallido-de-pedro-castillo">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/autogolpe-fallido-de-pedro-castillo</a></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijs8MlhiG4AxMNM9rpNy9zkRj7g-gA7yJQtSzgWH-EhJdkgh_2m9MGogfum4_5aMNQ0WuvPkhN56HlnSU98FDYHFL3juN8q2Xt6AmmzdRZQnFjWjvoHlGJP1JaKjaNWKRLd2cwpUqwJxsUHdImSfcM6C4zFbiaJ1u3dQN63TELC5_UGs6mwb40C6SGqA/s1856/Golpe%20Castillo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1095" data-original-width="1856" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijs8MlhiG4AxMNM9rpNy9zkRj7g-gA7yJQtSzgWH-EhJdkgh_2m9MGogfum4_5aMNQ0WuvPkhN56HlnSU98FDYHFL3juN8q2Xt6AmmzdRZQnFjWjvoHlGJP1JaKjaNWKRLd2cwpUqwJxsUHdImSfcM6C4zFbiaJ1u3dQN63TELC5_UGs6mwb40C6SGqA/w400-h236/Golpe%20Castillo.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-26712208329413864132022-12-16T06:06:00.002-08:002022-12-16T06:06:41.769-08:00Failed self-coup by Pedro Castillo<div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xdj266r x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Failed self-coup by Pedro Castillo</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">30 years after Fujimori's successful self-coup, Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress and become a dictator in <span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/peru?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZUTKQsnaywN7Dr1YGigjQk1HGYbozlcAwnNTlPlUC9SbILo2qE8DqnN1EMEz2knMp5Fba1NjCOGb_ajbeWKd6pds0R0XhZi-G6kkQMuWrYXkQ-KqelJjMg0VdsTVzU1lt5Pdhg03qbs8QhqVZtflGedfotoZo-c3eWh-wBObJ5gWw&__tn__=*NK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0">#Peru</a></span>. He ended up impeached and in the same prison as Fujimori.</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">With Dina Boluarte, Peru has its sixth President in four years. This instability has thus far not generated an economic or financial crisis, but if it spreads, it could have repercussions. </div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>Following Castillo's arrest, riots have broken out in various areas of Peru, which to date have left some 18 dead. The rioters demand the resignation of Boluarte, the immediate dissolution of Congress and the convening of a constituent assembly. That is, to continue with the attempted coup. It is unlikely that they will prevail (although they have managed to press for the acceleration of the date for new elections). The government has declared a state of national emergency.</div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Translated and updated version of my column in <span style="font-family: inherit;"><a class="x1i10hfl xjbqb8w x6umtig x1b1mbwd xaqea5y xav7gou x9f619 x1ypdohk xt0psk2 xe8uvvx xdj266r x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r xexx8yu x4uap5 x18d9i69 xkhd6sd x16tdsg8 x1hl2dhg xggy1nq x1a2a7pz xt0b8zv x1qq9wsj xo1l8bm" href="https://www.facebook.com/eluniversoec/?__cft__[0]=AZUTKQsnaywN7Dr1YGigjQk1HGYbozlcAwnNTlPlUC9SbILo2qE8DqnN1EMEz2knMp5Fba1NjCOGb_ajbeWKd6pds0R0XhZi-G6kkQMuWrYXkQ-KqelJjMg0VdsTVzU1lt5Pdhg03qbs8QhqVZtflGedfotoZo-c3eWh-wBObJ5gWw&__tn__=kK-R" role="link" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; background-color: transparent; border-color: initial; border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; display: inline; font-family: inherit; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation;" tabindex="0"><span class="xt0psk2" style="display: inline; font-family: inherit;">El Universo</span></a></span></div></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Read more:</span> </p><p><a href="https://substack.com/inbox/post/91013107">https://substack.com/inbox/post/91013107</a></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeQ-9rDx-KTo6kSZJdfoNVjRgL3xTmxkhe56QJdNbXohs007qjWt-5PTEK3eMVV9kXqumc9H3FYkcMFjHbvZd3XF_f4PQEjTIwVuwTQ0JXZ7yuybAcC9V6IVCFaxQwphJa9NCjKbcG__nJLo10gmmDDNhFrKVm4iBQ_Zx3SQlTrciFB_G0hWe2z72xGw/s1856/Golpe%20Castillo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1095" data-original-width="1856" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeQ-9rDx-KTo6kSZJdfoNVjRgL3xTmxkhe56QJdNbXohs007qjWt-5PTEK3eMVV9kXqumc9H3FYkcMFjHbvZd3XF_f4PQEjTIwVuwTQ0JXZ7yuybAcC9V6IVCFaxQwphJa9NCjKbcG__nJLo10gmmDDNhFrKVm4iBQ_Zx3SQlTrciFB_G0hWe2z72xGw/w400-h236/Golpe%20Castillo.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-37551646595758950412022-11-30T23:36:00.005-08:002022-11-30T23:36:55.233-08:00Presentation on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement and Climate Finance<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">Updated presentation on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement and Climate Finance, through November 2022 (Sharm El-Sheikh COP27).</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Presentation given to the Course: Finance for the Common Good at the University of Dayton (Prof. María Gabriela Vivero).</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Table of Contents:</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">1. Context and Background</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">2. Climate Change</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">3. The Paris Agreement</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">4. National Mitigation and Adaptation Commitments</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">5. Climate Finance</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">6. Low Emission Development Strategies</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Includes Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LTS) and net-zero pledges made through November 2022.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/presentation-on-climate-change-the">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/presentation-on-climate-change-the</a></span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><br /></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQKKRQwTwH-ROojv5OQSFhQE1SQ5GmwapOQO6lInLyLGohuLPtOciDVOdxaRgnZICOF-7D3FztoOEU60U3hbGwvfrJoiJWwWL0APUdng-0DAW6zh-2pUcamEn1G_y4PfcKe8P1vTVVgcmj3CkDXknjphl2Fa9BmXgaUcsoa2uZ5WxmEUkmAwfaj-E9Yg/s1857/Presentation%20on%20Climate%20Change%20Nov%202022.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1041" data-original-width="1857" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQKKRQwTwH-ROojv5OQSFhQE1SQ5GmwapOQO6lInLyLGohuLPtOciDVOdxaRgnZICOF-7D3FztoOEU60U3hbGwvfrJoiJWwWL0APUdng-0DAW6zh-2pUcamEn1G_y4PfcKe8P1vTVVgcmj3CkDXknjphl2Fa9BmXgaUcsoa2uZ5WxmEUkmAwfaj-E9Yg/w400-h224/Presentation%20on%20Climate%20Change%20Nov%202022.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><br /></span><p></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-5565230485088314872022-11-25T06:24:00.000-08:002022-11-25T06:24:00.474-08:00COP 27 con modestos resultados<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">Por Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">La Conferencia de las Partes 27 (o COP, por su sigla en inglés) de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC) acaba de concluir el 20 de noviembre en Sharm-el-Sheik, Egipto.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Aunque se había anunciado como la COP de la “implementación” y enfocada en la adaptación al cambio climático, en la práctica se empantanó por varios motivos:</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">- Los países en desarrollo exigían que se cree un nuevo “fondo de compensación” por las “Pérdidas y Daños” causados por el cambio climático (China, miembro del G77, no ha indicado si contribuirá a dicho fondo, pese a ser responsable de un tercio de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero). La creación del fondo finalmente fue aprobada el domingo 20, pero los detalles están por definirse (incluyendo quien debe aportar y quien puede recibir los recursos).</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">- Los países pequeños insulares, y la Unión Europea, insistían en que se debería aumentar la ambición en la reducción de las emisiones, para poder mantener viva la meta de limitar el aumento de la temperatura a menos de 1.5 grados C. Otros decían que ya no era factible dicha meta, pero que había que hacer un esfuerzo para no sobrepasar los 2 grados de aumento de temperatura.</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><br /></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Más en Substack:</p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/cop-27-con-modestos-resultados">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/cop-27-con-modestos-resultados</a></span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;">(*) Versión extendida de la columna publicada el 24 de noviembre en el Diario "El Universo":</span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><a href="goog_512675119"><br /></a></span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/cop-27-con-modestos-resultados-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/cop-27-con-modestos-resultados-nota/</a></span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjngplh6daX72l8Tz1s7JlGgv9ay-3aD4HfkJ3RrFGHUeu951k9gCqvm_L0j2qM2ZCtoIFko6oltgEVCc43nI1mVB73-j6ees_TLVfuL2j8dAtSwjoyrU9H0J3rFpI2Kg9dGhJ5F_OAM-_PopNjVvUD3E82JyrmIfcM1pGYLZT2ySLlbcxUpD3ycsmy9A/s1200/Climate%20Change%202022.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjngplh6daX72l8Tz1s7JlGgv9ay-3aD4HfkJ3RrFGHUeu951k9gCqvm_L0j2qM2ZCtoIFko6oltgEVCc43nI1mVB73-j6ees_TLVfuL2j8dAtSwjoyrU9H0J3rFpI2Kg9dGhJ5F_OAM-_PopNjVvUD3E82JyrmIfcM1pGYLZT2ySLlbcxUpD3ycsmy9A/w400-h400/Climate%20Change%202022.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, Apple Color Emoji, Segoe UI Emoji, Segoe UI Symbol;"><br /><span style="font-size: 19px;"><br /></span></span><p></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-10209697670716140132022-11-24T08:38:00.004-08:002022-11-25T06:24:38.908-08:00COP 27 with modest results<p> By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</p><p>Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C</p><p>The 27th Conference of Parties (or COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) just concluded on November 20 in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt.</p><p>Although it had been announced as the COP of “implementation” and focused on adaptation to climate change, in practice it got bogged down for several reasons:</p><p>- Developing countries demanded that a new "compensation fund" be created for "Loss and Damage" caused by climate change (China, a member of the G77, has not indicated whether it will contribute to such a fund, despite being currently responsible for a third of greenhouse gas emissions). The creation of the fund was finally approved on Sunday the 20th, but the details are yet to be defined (including who should contribute and who can receive the resources).</p><p>- The small island developing countries, and the European Union, insisted that ambition in reducing emissions should be increased, in order to keep alive the goal of limiting the increase in temperature to less than 1.5 degrees C. Others said that this goal was no longer feasible, but an effort had to be made to not exceed a 2 degree increase in temperature.</p><p>The event had to last two days longer than expected, given the difficulty in reaching consensus. There is no voting rule in the COP (not even a super-majority of 2/3 or 5/6), which is why it is understood that decisions must be unanimous (in some cases, when one or two minor countries have objected, the conference chair has indicated that it was his “sense” that there was consensus).</p><p>In my science fiction novel “<a href="https://www.amazon.es/Last-Human-English-Luis-Fierro-ebook/dp/B09D45JFK8" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">The Last Human</a>”, I anticipate that if a voting mechanism cannot be established, humanity will not be able to find a solution to this existential threat, and the temperature will continue to rise, and with it the sea level, natural disasters, droughts and floods in various regions, famines, among other catastrophic consequences.</p><p>More on Substack:</p><p><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/cop-27-with-modest-results">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/cop-27-with-modest-results</a></p><p><br /></p><p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">(*) English translation of a column published in “El Universo” newspaper in Ecuador, November 24, 2022</p><p><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/cop-27-con-modestos-resultados-nota/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/cop-27-con-modestos-resultados-nota/</a></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw2uzxbWiLcLjf4zieWn-iTMLRC1saeKVN_yqJIVJ67y9pl9tcZe0x505_IN8If6aMiAkz9fDkgD3pp-o8HCbBCQmxHjesWB_fquUQWKYgva-TkH2s0av9T7GKN0sJOTKLigcO1HjuUVvZohcGneADda9kFzSnKKk2dy-MPVzC0y6Uur49BzFeLbnqSw/s1200/Climate%20Change%202022.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw2uzxbWiLcLjf4zieWn-iTMLRC1saeKVN_yqJIVJ67y9pl9tcZe0x505_IN8If6aMiAkz9fDkgD3pp-o8HCbBCQmxHjesWB_fquUQWKYgva-TkH2s0av9T7GKN0sJOTKLigcO1HjuUVvZohcGneADda9kFzSnKKk2dy-MPVzC0y6Uur49BzFeLbnqSw/w400-h400/Climate%20Change%202022.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-22015115583800090842022-11-23T02:18:00.003-08:002022-11-25T06:26:09.982-08:00Oikos, Economy and Ecology / Boletín sobre economía y ecología en Substack<p> <span data-offset-key="1q869-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Oikos: A newsletter focused on economics and ecology, by </span><span class="xv78j7m" data-offset-key="1q869-1-0" end="68" spellcheck="false" start="57" style="color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Luis Fierro</span><span data-offset-key="1q869-2-0" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> on </span><span class="xv78j7m" data-offset-key="1q869-3-0" end="80" spellcheck="false" start="72" style="color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Substack</span><span data-offset-key="1q869-4-0" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><div data-block="true" data-editor="c263l" data-offset-key="5g1fe-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="5g1fe-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Continuing my efforts to diversify risks and expand my social media presence, here is my new Substack newsletter. You are welcome to subscribe.</span></div><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="5g1fe-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="5g1fe-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Un nuevo boletín sobre economía y ecología, en Substack.</span></div><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="5g1fe-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="5g1fe-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Publicaré preferentemente allí, por lo cual les invito a suscribirse.</span></div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="c263l" data-offset-key="4f9b6-0-0" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="4f9b6-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><span data-offset-key="4f9b6-0-0" style="font-family: inherit;"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="c263l" data-offset-key="3i8pk-0-0" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Segoe UI Historic", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3i8pk-0-0" style="color: #050505; direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><span class="x1fey0fg" color="var(--blue-link)" style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/coming-soon">https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/coming-soon</a></span></div><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3i8pk-0-0" style="color: #050505; direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="3i8pk-0-0" style="direction: ltr; font-family: inherit; position: relative;"><span style="color: #0000ee;"><u><br /></u></span><span class="x1fey0fg" style="color: #050505; font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/coming-soon"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://luisfierro.substack.com/p/coming-soon"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS16b9PIo5w7Yv39ItqPOphyXRL2vvTZuuPKVK5a-FZgk7NczLC8zzqAkwAVI2Obld_gc0OOn6V42ZknlG94SKghL38Zn6yckLU4uhUB91ZqH_juvfCvI-7BNhmV-u4-S_aEF7qtx_77neWuUHydSLmOkWtn67S8M3fJC-QbZ1G8ujtpk9lhsXJuZK4Q/s1050/Nasa_blue_marble.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1050" data-original-width="1024" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS16b9PIo5w7Yv39ItqPOphyXRL2vvTZuuPKVK5a-FZgk7NczLC8zzqAkwAVI2Obld_gc0OOn6V42ZknlG94SKghL38Zn6yckLU4uhUB91ZqH_juvfCvI-7BNhmV-u4-S_aEF7qtx_77neWuUHydSLmOkWtn67S8M3fJC-QbZ1G8ujtpk9lhsXJuZK4Q/w390-h400/Nasa_blue_marble.jpg" width="390" /></a></div><br />n</span></div></div>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-76415179282339441002022-11-18T04:19:00.003-08:002022-11-18T06:57:08.507-08:00The Red Wave That Wasn't<p> By Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Before the US midterm elections on November 8, many polls
and pundits said that there would be a "red wave" in favor of the
Republican Party candidates (oddly, unlike the rest of the world, in the U.S., the
conservative party is identified with red, and the progressive party with
blue).<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Heavy losses were anticipated in the Senate and the House of
Representatives, and in the Governorships of the States; it was thought that
the Democratic Party would lose control of Congress, leaving President Biden
without parliamentary support. It was also anticipated that a large number of
Latino voters would defect from the Democratic Party.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">A few analysts contradicted this message. Most notably
perhaps Simon Rosenberg (<a href="https://twitter.com/SimonWDC">https://twitter.com/SimonWDC</a>),
President of NDN, a progressive think-tank in Washington D.C. He said he saw no
evidence of a so-called "red wave" in nonpartisan polling, voter
enthusiasm, financial donations to parties, and, perhaps most importantly, in
early voting. According to his data, before November 8, more than 45 million
people had already voted, and among them the Democrats had an advantage of 11%
(5 million votes). The lead was particularly high in the so-called
"swing" or purple states, those states that do not have a significant
majority for either party.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As I write these lines, the Democrats have already achieved
a majority in the Senate (50 Senators plus the tie-breaking vote of Vice
President Kamala Harris), with the narrow victory of Mark Kelly in Arizona and
Catherine Cortez-Masto in Nevada. There will be a runoff on December 6 in
Georgia between Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican candidate
Herschel Walker. In the first round, Warnock obtained 49.4% compared to
Walker's 48.5%, but the electoral norms in Georgia require a ballot in the
event that no one obtains 50%. Warnock is likely to prevail, given that he just
needs an additional 0.6 %, in which case the Democrats will have won one net
seat.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the House of Representatives, the current projection is
221 Republicans vs. 214 Democrats, but the margin favoring the Republicans in some
districts is very low, and could be reversed (one of these districts,
surprisingly, is that of the extremist Lauren Boebert, which was supposed to be
a safe seat for the Republicans). In any case, some 8 seats will be reversed in
net terms, much less than the average of 28 that is usually reversed in the
first midterm election.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">As for the Governors, the Democrats will have reverted three
states (Massachusetts, Maryland and Arizona), while the Republicans only one
(Nevada), with a net gain of 2 for the Democrats.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">In the state legislatures, the Democrats have won several,
and lost none, something that had not happened since 1934. They also managed to
win full control (Governor and two chambers) in three additional states:
Arizona, Michigan and Minnesota.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">All in all, except for the loss in the House of
Representatives, it was a good night for the Democrats.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Analysts attribute this result to three Ds. On the one hand,
the Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs case, which eliminated the national
right to abortion; this boosted voting in several states, and five state
referendums on the issue were also approved. The second D refers to Donald
Trump. He supported extremist candidates in various states (for example, for
the Senate in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada; and for the governorship
in Pennsylvania, whose candidate lost by 15%). The third D is for
"Denialists", that is, those who denied the validity of the 2020
presidential elections, and also questioned the integrity of the elections in
general. The Republican candidates for Secretary of State (official in charge
of organizing the elections) in the swing states lost (Arizona, Massachusetts,
Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico; in Pennsylvania the SoS is appointed
by the Governor). These positions are important because they will participate
in the certification of presidential electors in 2024.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">One last prediction by some analysts that was totally wrong
was that Latinos would move significantly toward the Republicans. In reality,
the percentage of Hispanics who voted Democratic remained close to historical
levels (64%), down 5% from 2020. But most of this drop is due to Florida, where
voters of Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan origin believed the false attacks
that the Democrats (a party of the center, or even center-right in the European
or Latin American context) were somehow socialist. Only voters of Cuban or
South American descent in Florida voted in majority for the Republicans.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">See: <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/11/11/latinos-support-democrats-over-republicans-2-1-in-house-and-senate%20-elections/">https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/11/11/latinos-support-democrats-over-republicans-2-1-in-house-and-senate
-elections/</a>.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">(*) Translation of the column published in Diario “El
Universo” of Ecuador on November 18, 2022<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/la-ola-republicana-que-no-fue-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/la-ola-republicana-que-no-fue-nota/</a> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqEnVnxTBA4FQJx1G9bX5iU-67qEEmN7ReAfsPpuHJ_nW_-UnF0-YBDmqMutGWfI92JgP942DJAZBY8YfpK07yHJKXdX3a-5os9hP3-ydSUGVVzabFZvtPlNoVfchd-5nZtxRtO2w1GHjdAls9KRC58VFqvXDVHRslGtpXnZPZYgMI2fylMoqL-EliUA/s1275/Shapiro%20Obama%20Biden%20Fetterman.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="1275" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqEnVnxTBA4FQJx1G9bX5iU-67qEEmN7ReAfsPpuHJ_nW_-UnF0-YBDmqMutGWfI92JgP942DJAZBY8YfpK07yHJKXdX3a-5os9hP3-ydSUGVVzabFZvtPlNoVfchd-5nZtxRtO2w1GHjdAls9KRC58VFqvXDVHRslGtpXnZPZYgMI2fylMoqL-EliUA/w400-h215/Shapiro%20Obama%20Biden%20Fetterman.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">El Gobernador electo de Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro; el ex-Presidente Barack Obama; el Presidente Joe Biden; y el Senador electo por Pennsylvania, John Fetterman. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-58798723681075884602022-11-18T03:51:00.006-08:002022-11-18T03:51:51.803-08:00La Ola Republicana que no fue <p> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Por Luis Fierro Carrión</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Antes de las elecciones intermedias en Estados Unidos, celebradas el 8
de noviembre, la mayoría de las encuestas y pronósticos advertían que habría
una gran “ola roja” en favor de los candidatos del Partido Republicano
(curiosamente, al contrario del resto del mundo, en EE.UU. se identifica al
partido conservador con el rojo, y al partido progresista con el azul).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Se anticipaban grandes pérdidas en el Senado y la Cámara de
Representantes, y en las Gobernaciones de los Estados; que el Partido Demócrata
perdería el control del Congreso, dejando al Presidente Biden sin apoyo
parlamentario. También se anticipaba que un gran número de votantes Latinos
desertarían del Partido Demócrata.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Algunos pocos analistas contradecían este mensaje. El más notable quizás
Simon Rosenberg (</span><a href="https://twitter.com/SimonWDC"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">https://twitter.com/SimonWDC</span></a><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">), Presidente de NDN, un think-tank progresista en
Washington D.C. Él decía que no veía evidencia de una supuesta “marea roja” en
las encuestas no-partidistas, en el entusiasmo de los votantes, en las
donaciones económicas a los partidos, y, lo que quizás era más importante, en
la votación temprana. Según sus datos, antes del 8 de noviembre, ya habían
votado más de 45 millones de personas, y entre éstas los Demócratas tenían una
ventaja de 11 % (5 millones de votos). La ventaja era particularmente alta en
los llamados “estados pendulares” o púrpuras, aquellos estados que no tienen
una mayoría significativa para ninguno de los dos partidos.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Mientras escribo estas líneas, los Demócratas ya han logrado la mayoría
en el Senado (50 Senadores más el voto dirimente de la Vicepresidenta Kamala
Harris), al confirmarse la victoria por estrecho margen de Mark Kelly en
Arizona y Catherine Cortez-Masto en Nevada. Habrá un balotaje el 6 de diciembre
en Georgia, entre el Senador Demócrata Raphael Warnock y el candidato
Republicano, Herschel Walker. En la primera vuelta Warnock obtuvo 49,4 % frente
a 48,5 % de Walker, pero las normas electorales en Georgia obligan a un
balotaje en el caso que ninguno obtenga 50 %. Es probable que prevalezca
Warnock, dado que la votación adicional que necesita es menor (0,6 %), con lo cual
los Demócratas habrán ganado un escaño neto.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En la Cámara de Representantes, la proyección actual es 221 Republicanos
vs 214 Demócratas, pero el margen que favorece a los Republicanos en algunos
distritos es muy bajo, y podría revertirse (uno de estos distritos,
sorprendentemente, es el de la extremista Lauren Boebert, que se suponía era un
escaño seguro para los Republicanos). En cualquier caso, se revertirán en
términos netos unos 8 escaños, mucho menos que el promedio de 28 que suele voltearse
en la primera elección de medio término.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En cuanto a los Gobernadores, los Demócratas habrán revertido tres
Estados (Massachussets, Maryland y Arizona), en tanto que los Republicanos sólo
uno (Nevada), con una ganancia neta de 2 para los Demócratas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En las legislaturas estatales, los Demócratas han ganado varias, y no
perdieron ninguna, algo que no había ocurrido desde 1934. Lograron además ganar
el control total (Gobernador y dos cámaras) en Arizona, Michigan y Minnesota.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En definitiva, excepto por la posible derrota en la Cámara de
Representantes, fue una buena noche para los Demócratas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Los analistas atribuyen este resultado a tres D. Por un lado, la
decisión de la Corte Suprema en el caso Dobbs, que eliminó el derecho nacional
al aborto; esto impulsó la votación en varios estados, y además tuvieron éxito
cinco referendos estatales sobre el tema. La segunda D se refiere a Donald
Trump. Este apoyó a candidatos extremistas en varios Estados (por ejemplo, para
el Senado en Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada; y para la gobernación en
Pennsylvania, cuyo candidato perdió por 15 %). La tercera D es por
“Denialists”, es decir aquellos que negaban la validez de las elecciones
presidenciales de 2020, y además ponían en duda la integridad de las elecciones
en general. Los candidatos Republicanos para Secretario de Estado (funcionario
encargado de organizar las elecciones) en los estados pendulares perdieron (Arizona,
Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Nuevo México; en Pennsylvania es
nombrado por el Gobernador). Estos cargos son importantes porque participarán
en la certificación de los electores presidenciales en 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Una última predicción de algunos analistas que fue totalmente errada fue
que los Latinos se moverían significativamente hacia los Republicanos. En realidad,
el porcentaje de Hispanos que votó por los Demócratas se mantuvo cercano a los
niveles históricos (64 %), con una reducción de 5 % con respecto a 2020. Pero
la mayor parte de esta reducción se debe a Florida, donde votantes de origen
Cubano, Venezolano y Nicaragüense creyeron los ataques falsos de que los
Demócratas (un partido de centro, o incluso centro-derecha en el contexto
europeo o latinoamericano) eran de alguna manera socialistas. Solo los votantes
de origen cubano o sudamericano en Florida votaron mayoritariamente por los
Republicanos (</span><a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/11/11/latinos-support-democrats-over-republicans-2-1-in-house-and-senate-elections/"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/11/11/latinos-support-democrats-over-republicans-2-1-in-house-and-senate-elections/</span></a><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;"> </span></p>
<span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS Mincho"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">(*) Versión más extensa y actualizada de la
columna publicada el 18 de noviembre, 2022, en el Diario “El Universo” de
Ecuador.</span><div><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/la-ola-republicana-que-no-fue-nota/<br /></span><div><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS Mincho"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div><div><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS Mincho"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi82I0Y9KJDPGd2pYjuXlERGxunnCY5qdl8o-S5uYQ3NfTtJdC4IqybRiJg1fb4tZGtleKu_5RNTF-acjBjoFbvqjyannX_i8Ko0P3qcKLO1_YZ1xynNiJ15hdDWKXos18xjwepFk9PH_qrNxBVW7Cks5zkzCq11pqM2Tzb2-LFkftql2nOPRkKARMgtw/s1275/Shapiro%20Obama%20Biden%20Fetterman.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="1275" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi82I0Y9KJDPGd2pYjuXlERGxunnCY5qdl8o-S5uYQ3NfTtJdC4IqybRiJg1fb4tZGtleKu_5RNTF-acjBjoFbvqjyannX_i8Ko0P3qcKLO1_YZ1xynNiJ15hdDWKXos18xjwepFk9PH_qrNxBVW7Cks5zkzCq11pqM2Tzb2-LFkftql2nOPRkKARMgtw/w640-h344/Shapiro%20Obama%20Biden%20Fetterman.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS Mincho"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div><div><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">El Gobernador electo de Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro; el ex-Presidente Barack Obama; el Presidente Joe Biden; y el Senador electo por Pennsylvania, John Fetterman. </span></span></div></div>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-27366562491073491442022-10-21T08:04:00.000-07:002022-10-21T08:04:28.110-07:00Why doesn't the Ecuador country risk go down?<p>By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)</p><p>Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C</p><p>In recent weeks, the so-called "country risk" of Ecuador, instead of going down, has continued to rise, reaching 1,945 basis points (that is, 19.45% above the US Treasury bond rate). .</p><p>The "country risk" essentially reflects the probability that a country declares a default on servicing its foreign debt. It is true that Ecuador has a negative trajectory in this regard, having declared a moratorium on 11 occasions, tying with Venezuela and Argentina in the moratorium record (the last in 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic). (Spain has more defaults, but over 5 centuries).</p><p>However, Ecuador's macroeconomic indicators should rather have induced a reduction in said risk differential.</p><p>A few weeks ago, an agreement was announced to restructure the external debt with Chinese entities, reducing the interest rate between 0.2 and 1%; extending deadlines; and reducing debt service by $870 million in 2022-23.</p><p>The fiscal deficit has fallen from $7.1 billion in 2020 to $2.3 billion in 2022. The public debt/GDP ratio will drop from 62.2% of GDP in 2020 to 57% of GDP in 2023. International reserves have exceeded $8.4 billion (having fallen to less than $2 billion in March 2020). The average price of oil has exceeded IMF projections (by $24.20 per barrel in 2022, and by $13.50 per barrel in the medium term). The projected GDP growth rate in 2022 (2.9% according to the IMF) is one of the highest in the region, while inflation is one of the lowest (4.1%).</p><p>All these objective macroeconomic factors should have lowered the country risk to around 500-600 points, but instead it has shot up to almost 2,000 points.</p><p>The explanation, therefore, is not that the default risk has increased in the short term (I would say that this risk is zero, given that the main payments to the IMF and China have been postponed from 2025, and of sovereign bonds to 2026).</p><p>The concern is fundamentally political:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>It is considered that the government of President Lasso will not be able to approve structural reforms in the Assembly, for example, in the labor or investment legislation.</li><li>The commitment to double oil production does not seem viable (mining production will continue to increase, but gradually).</li><li>There is a risk that the Assembly will dismiss the President, or that he will invoke the "simultaneous death" (closing the Assembly and calling for new elections).</li><li>Although the leader of the indigenous confederation, Leonidas Iza, has weakened his support within the indigenous movement, a new “national insurrection” is still possible, affecting oil, mining, and rural production (agriculture, livestock, flowers, etc.).</li><li>It is feared that the next government (either a product of the “crossed death”, or regular elections in 2025) will not be “market friendly” and will invoke a new debt moratorium.</li></ul><p></p><p>The "Iza effect" then becomes in reality an Iza-Correa-PSC-Pachakutik effect. Some PSC spokespersons (among them Mayor Cynthia Viteri) have questioned the servicing of the external debt, and apparently they have a close alliance with Correísmo and the “anti-capitalist” sectors of the Pachakutik movement.</p><p>There are also technical factors that affect Ecuador's country risk, such as low liquidity and high transaction costs, given that the country is not a recurring issuer.</p><p>In the long term, the only way to overcome this perception of high risk is by achieving a fiscal agreement between the main political forces, assuming as an objective to lower the cost of the country's external financing; and tax reforms that raise the level of fiscal pressure in the country to levels close to the average for Latin America. Currently, it is 19.1% of GDP, while the average for Latin America is 21.9%, and for OECD countries 33.5%.</p><p><br /></p><p>(*) Translated version of the column published in "El Universo" newspaper on October 20, 2022</p><p><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/por-que-no-baja-el-riesgo-pais-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/por-que-no-baja-el-riesgo-pais-nota/</a></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAqu94_al-VHQ_EYWPMKP7VBBK1Ti_ZW4tuQ_nWkKENyVqA2nYJM9PeI5KSa8_k7m1UFbJ_bkzkzKQAVmAy2CN5vZKwGmjXXeDzZCWrpjd-41YurNr9bVyY4pNeMxCn7HxHu_JJUYKVUgCCogJ7j9XOZG0aAWTX8i44aKl2Ig-wmH_KBMmobRWMY6T6g/s1686/Riesgo%20Pais%202022.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1010" data-original-width="1686" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAqu94_al-VHQ_EYWPMKP7VBBK1Ti_ZW4tuQ_nWkKENyVqA2nYJM9PeI5KSa8_k7m1UFbJ_bkzkzKQAVmAy2CN5vZKwGmjXXeDzZCWrpjd-41YurNr9bVyY4pNeMxCn7HxHu_JJUYKVUgCCogJ7j9XOZG0aAWTX8i44aKl2Ig-wmH_KBMmobRWMY6T6g/w640-h384/Riesgo%20Pais%202022.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-24407501594850174582022-10-21T07:47:00.001-07:002022-10-21T07:47:22.668-07:00¿Por qué no baja el riesgo país? <p> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Por Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En las últimas semanas, el llamado “riesgo país” del Ecuador, en lugar de bajar, ha
seguido subiendo, alcanzando 1.945 puntos básicos (esto es, 19,45 % por
encima de la tasa de los bonos del Tesoro de EE.UU.).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El “riesgo país” en esencia refleja la probabilidad de que un país
declare la moratoria en el servicio de su deuda externa. Es cierto que el
Ecuador tiene una trayectoria negativa en este sentido, habiendo declarado
moratoria en 11 ocasiones, empatando con Venezuela y Argentina en el récord de
moratorias (la última en 2020, al inicio de la pandemia). (España tiene más
moratorias, pero a lo largo de 5 siglos).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">No obstante, los indicadores macroeconómicos del Ecuador mas bien
deberían haber inducido una reducción de dicho diferencial.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Hace unas semanas se anunció un acuerdo para reestructurar la deuda
externa con entidades chinas, reduciendo la tasa de interés entre 0,2 y 1 %;
extendiendo los plazos; y reduciendo el servicio de la deuda en $870 millones
en 2022-23. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El déficit fiscal ha bajado de $7.100 millones en 2020 a $2.300 millones
en 2022. La relación deuda pública/PIB bajará de 62,2 % del PIB en 2020, a 57 %
del PIB en 2023. Las reservas internacionales han superado $8.400 millones
(habiendo bajado a menos de $2.000 millones en marzo 2020). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>El precio promedio del petróleo ha superado
las proyecciones del FMI (por $24,20 por barril en 2022, y en $13,50 por barril
en un plazo mediano). La tasa de crecimiento del PIB prevista en 2022 (2,9 %
según el FMI) es una de las mas altas en la región, en tanto que la inflación es
una de las más bajas (4,1 %).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Todos estos factores macroeconómicos objetivos deberían haber bajado el
riesgo país a unos 500-600 puntos, pero en su lugar se ha disparado a cerca de
2.000 puntos.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">La explicación, por ende, no es que haya aumentado el riesgo de
moratoria en el corto plazo (diría que ese riesgo es cero, dado que los pagos
principales del FMI y China se han postergado a partir de 2025, y de los bonos
soberanos a 2026).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">La preocupación es fundamentalmente política:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span> </span><span> </span></span></span><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Se
considera que el gobierno del Presidente Lasso no podrá aprobar reformas
estructurales en la Asamblea, por ejemplo, en el ámbito laboral o de
inversiones.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span> </span><span> </span></span><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -0.25in;">No
parece viable la apuesta por duplicar la producción petrolera (la producción
minera seguirá aumentando, pero gradualmente).</span></li><li><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span> </span><span> </span></span></span><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Existe
un riesgo de que la Asamblea destituya al Presidente, o que este invoque la
“muerte cruzada”.<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span> </span><span> </span></span></span><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Si
bien el Sr. Iza se ha debilitado al interior del movimiento indígena, todavía
es posible un nuevo “estallido” que afecte la producción petrolera, minera y
rural (agrícola, ganadera, florícola, etc.).<o:p></o:p></span></li><li><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span> </span><span> </span></span></span><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Se
teme que el próximo gobierno (sea producto de la “muerte cruzada”, o de
elecciones regulares en 2025) no sea “amigable al mercado” e invoque una nueva
moratoria de la deuda.<o:p></o:p></span></li></ul><!--[if !supportLists]--><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El “efecto Iza” entonces se vuelve en realidad en un efecto
Iza-Correa-PSC-Pachakutik. Algunos voceros del PSC (entre ellos la Alcaldesa
Viteri) han cuestionado el servicio de la deuda externa, y al parecer tienen
una alianza estrecha con el Correísmo y los sectores “anticapitalistas” del
movimiento Pachakutik.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">También hay factores técnicos que afectan el riesgo país de Ecuador, tal
como la escasa liquidez y elevado costo de transacción, dado que el país no es
un emisor recurrente.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">A largo plazo, la única forma de superar esta percepción de elevado
riesgo es logrando un acuerdo fiscal entre las principales fuerzas políticas, asumiendo
como un objetivo rebajar el costo del financiamiento externo del país; y
reformas tributarias que eleven el nivel de presión fiscal del país a niveles
cercanos al promedio de América Latina.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Actualmente,
es del 19,1 % del PIB, mientras que el promedio de América Latina es 21,9 %, y
para los países de la OCDE 33,5 %.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">(*) Una versión más corta de esta columna se publicó en el Diario "El Universo" del Ecuador el 20 de octubre de 2022</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/por-que-no-baja-el-riesgo-pais-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/por-que-no-baja-el-riesgo-pais-nota/</a></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi40y1wTKiqQNKrsjjuQtBfUuwIvg2P3XcPXFl74Zr5VWswXyaP_eAcIdyDbg7aUdOJegf7eHP4E7DT7Fg4VOSubVHYJa-PFRlTJbdKtTEf23GFQmL9nC-UGIv2DJqo6jGotqwEDRfynI6JaLNFV-Au2PC2JqXYzbWg35xHZnQ5_L5xSckqV92BQ1mhqw/s1686/Riesgo%20Pais%202022.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1010" data-original-width="1686" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi40y1wTKiqQNKrsjjuQtBfUuwIvg2P3XcPXFl74Zr5VWswXyaP_eAcIdyDbg7aUdOJegf7eHP4E7DT7Fg4VOSubVHYJa-PFRlTJbdKtTEf23GFQmL9nC-UGIv2DJqo6jGotqwEDRfynI6JaLNFV-Au2PC2JqXYzbWg35xHZnQ5_L5xSckqV92BQ1mhqw/w640-h384/Riesgo%20Pais%202022.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;"><br /></span></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-12289138828232536172022-09-16T01:25:00.000-07:002022-09-16T01:25:01.156-07:00Financing the energy transition in Ecuador <p>Financing the energy transition in Ecuador </p><p>By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)</p><p>Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C</p><p>The acceleration of climate change and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have produced a renewed impetus regarding the need to move towards an energy transition in Ecuador.</p><p>The extortion generated by the indigenous movement strike, which forced the government to increase the subsidy for fossil fuels, makes even more urgent the need to reduce fossil fuel consumption and promote the use of renewable energy.</p><p>Fossil fuel subsidies constitute complete nonsense, given their negative impact on income distribution, on health, climate change, air pollution and the fiscal deficit.</p><p>One way to address these problems is to promote the use of electric transportation, whether individual or collective. In the collective sphere, it seems that the Quito Metro, whose construction ended without having resolved the issue of its operational management, is finally going to start operating in a few months. In Cuenca, the tram also had to wait more than a year between its construction and its operation. In Guayaquil, the Airway that connects Durán with Guayaquil came into operation, although with little influx of the public. In Guayaquil, the use of electric buses has also been promoted.</p><p>These are incipient steps in the use of electro-mobility in Ecuador. There are resources from multilateral development banks (IDB, CAF, AFD, KfW) to promote a more intensive use of electric vehicles, which also requires the installation of a network of battery charging stations.</p><p>By using electric vehicles, the consumption of fossil fuels is reduced (and, therefore, the cost of subsidies for the State is lower), and the excess capacity of hydroelectric generation is better used (the vehicles should preferably be recharged late at night, with a reduced rate).</p><p>Efforts have also been made to promote renewable energy beyond large hydroelectric plants, through the approval for the installation of solar and wind power plants (in Loja, Manabí, Galapagos, among others).</p><p>The government has announced plans to rationalize the use of natural gas, which may include: stopping burning gas at the oil wells and refineries, and instead capturing and using such valuable resources; and making better use of the gas from the Gulf (instead of forcing the thermoelectric generation at the Termogas Machala plant, at hours when hydroelectric generation would suffice).</p><p>There are resources available to promote the energy transition towards greater use of renewable energy and more energy efficiency, by multilateral and bilateral development banks (World Bank, European Investment Bank, IDB, CAF, AFD, KfW, Green Climate Fund, etc.). </p><p>The National Climate Finance Strategy was approved in February 2021. This strategy seeks to establish a clear and effective governance of climate finance; transversally integrate the climate approach in the financial system; and promote greater access to climate finance.</p><p>The Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Ministry of the Environment, Water and Ecological Transition are in charge of promoting these processes. In addition, the accreditation of a public bank before the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund is contemplated.</p><p>Ecuador is already a power in the generation of energy with low emissions, and must continue promoting the conversion of the vehicle fleet towards electromobility.<br /><br /></p><p>(*) A Spanish version of this column was published on September 16, 2022, in "Diario El Universo" of Ecuador:</p><p><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/financiando-la-transicion-energetica-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/financiando-la-transicion-energetica-nota/</a></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg324zNTqMIubpdeqcxqQkyVERTUK-JC6Fn0hqwJrEcWrudYByPF1_2dEt1MKlBCrVoVyEWh-3HxfI9V-XnF_91ud9XWyX0WChIguiHC2dNMeuaoEUBVCjduG7wIRk2ZyA8_GpB_dWjd65QM51OSwwYDTz56BTzqydq1-DR6hJCsxvyWy1v-2fHiu42LQ/s400/Luis%20Fierro%20Financiamiento%20Climatico.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="400" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg324zNTqMIubpdeqcxqQkyVERTUK-JC6Fn0hqwJrEcWrudYByPF1_2dEt1MKlBCrVoVyEWh-3HxfI9V-XnF_91ud9XWyX0WChIguiHC2dNMeuaoEUBVCjduG7wIRk2ZyA8_GpB_dWjd65QM51OSwwYDTz56BTzqydq1-DR6hJCsxvyWy1v-2fHiu42LQ/w400-h229/Luis%20Fierro%20Financiamiento%20Climatico.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-84982667772742474172022-09-16T01:09:00.001-07:002022-09-16T01:09:05.415-07:00Financiando la transición energética <p> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Por Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">La aceleración del cambio climático y la invasión rusa a Ucrania han producido
un renovado ímpetu con respecto a la necesidad de avanzar hacia la transición energética
en el Ecuador.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">La extorsión generada por el paro de la CONAIE, que forzó al gobierno a
aumentar el subsidio a los combustibles fósiles, también vuelve aun más urgente
la necesidad de reducir el consumo de combustibles fósiles y fomentar el uso de
energía renovable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Los subsidios a los combustibles fósiles constituyen un sinsentido
completo, dado su impacto sobre la distribución del ingreso (regresivo), sobre
la salud (negativo), el cambio climático, la contaminación ambiental y el
déficit fiscal.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Una forma de encarar estos problemas es fomentar el uso de transporte
eléctrico, sea individual o colectivo. En el ámbito colectivo, parece que
finalmente se va a echar a andar el Metro de Quito, cuya construcción concluyó
sin haber resuelto el tema de su gestión operativa. En Cuenca, el tranvía igualmente
tuvo que esperar más de un año entre su construcción y su operación. En
Guayaquil, entró en operación la Aerovía que comunica Durán con Guayaquil,
aunque con escasa afluencia del público. En Guayaquil también se ha promovido
el uso de buses eléctricos. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Estos son pasos incipientes en el uso de la electro-movilidad en el
Ecuador. Existen recursos de bancos multilaterales de desarrollo (BID, CAF,
AFD, KfW) para promover un uso más intensivo de vehículos eléctricos, lo cual
también requiere la instalación de una red de estaciones de recarga de
baterías. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Al usar vehículos eléctricos, se reduce el consumo de combustibles
fósiles (y, por ende, disminuye el costo de los subsidios para el Estado), y se
aprovecha de mejor manera el excedente de capacidad de generación
hidroeléctrica (los vehículos deberían recargarse preferentemente por la noche,
con una tarifa reducida).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">También se han efectuado esfuerzos por impulsar la energía renovable más
allá de las grandes centrales hidroeléctricas, mediante la instalación de
plantas de energía solar y eólica (en Loja, Manabí, Galápagos, entre otras).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El gobierno ha anunciado planes para racionalizar el uso del gas
natural, lo cual puede incluir: dejar de quemar gas en los mecheros en los
pozos petroleros y las refinerías, y más bien captar y usar dichos recursos
valiosos; y utilizar de mejor manera el gas del Golfo (en lugar de forzar la
generación termoeléctrica en la planta de Termogas Machala).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Existen recursos disponibles para impulsar la transición energética
hacia el mayor uso de energía renovable, por parte de los bancos multilaterales
y bilaterales de desarrollo (Banco Mundial, Banco Europeo de Inversiones, BID,
CAF, AFD, KfW, etc.). Se aprobó en Febrero 2021 la Estrategia Nacional de
Financiamiento Climático. Dicha estrategia busca establecer una gobernanza
clara y efectiva del financiamiento climático; integrar transversalmente el
enfoque climático en el sistema financiero; y promover un mayor acceso al financiamiento
climático.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas y el Ministerio del Ambiente, Agua
y Transición Ecológica son los encargados de impulsar estos procesos. Además, se
contempla la acreditación de un banco público ante el Fondo Verde para el Clima
y el Fondo de Adaptación. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Ecuador ya es una potencia en la generación de energía con bajas
emisiones, y debe continuar impulsando la conversión del parque vehicular hacia
la electro movilidad.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">(*) Una versión más corta de esta columna fue publicada el 16 de septiembre en el Diario "El Universo" de Ecuador:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/financiando-la-transicion-energetica-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/financiando-la-transicion-energetica-nota/</a></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE1Umo47219jiH2Yp16JvE4pITJ4I2oljObI85-w-IUXOmuGKfN_tDO9WGc7oWXYHebhhY6Ncr96SEgmanBsg0KUQyrF1RSrXOQozv1EKj8Gw9wKw7Ow7vvDZ4YDXqbMmh_jiKBcLtGVthYPsqkT9RdHo3bV-mqjcV_7uCIpKIOt2_hWAR65beldgFBw/s400/Luis%20Fierro%20Financiamiento%20Climatico.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="400" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE1Umo47219jiH2Yp16JvE4pITJ4I2oljObI85-w-IUXOmuGKfN_tDO9WGc7oWXYHebhhY6Ncr96SEgmanBsg0KUQyrF1RSrXOQozv1EKj8Gw9wKw7Ow7vvDZ4YDXqbMmh_jiKBcLtGVthYPsqkT9RdHo3bV-mqjcV_7uCIpKIOt2_hWAR65beldgFBw/w400-h229/Luis%20Fierro%20Financiamiento%20Climatico.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;"><br /></span></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-80462449406346087492022-08-21T09:06:00.000-07:002022-08-21T09:06:24.766-07:00The "Wired" magazine 1997 predictions (and my predictions for 2064)<p>By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)</p><p>Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C</p><p>In July 1997, "Wired" magazine published a rather optimistic article predicting a long "boom" of prosperity, freedom, and environmental improvements in the next 25 years (until 2022). </p><p>However, to temper such optimism a bit, it also published a sidebar on problems that could arise and adversely affect this boom.</p><p>Some of these negative predictions have been fulfilled almost to the letter:</p><p>• “Tensions between China and the US escalate into a new Cold War — bordering on a hot one.”</p><p>• “Russia devolves into a kleptocracy run by a mafia or retreats into quasi-communist nationalism that threatens Europe"</p><p>• “Major ecological crisis causes a global climate change that among other things, disrupts the food supply - causing big price increases everywhere and sporadic famines".</p><p>Others have been partially fulfilled, for example</p><p>• “An uncontrollable plague - a modern-day influenza epidemic or its equivalent - takes off like wildfire, killing upward of 200 million people". The COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to have killed 20 million people to date.</p><p>• “Europe's integration process grinds to a halt. Eastern and Western Europe can't finesse a reunification". Although the United Kingdom left the European Union through Brexit, since 1997 the number of Member States of the European Union has increased from 15 to 27 (including several Central and Eastern European countries), with an additional 10 countries waiting to enter.</p><p>• An increase in crime and terrorism.</p><p>Other predictions failed, for example, that new technologies would not bring about an increase in productivity.</p><p>In my science fiction novel "The Last Human", I make some predictions until 2064. </p><p>Without going into too many "spoilers", some of these are:</p><p>• The Saudi autocracy will collapse and an Islamic republic will be established.</p><p>• Both China and Cuba will move towards multi-party democracies, although still with a predominance of a “democratic socialist” party; while the North Korean government will implode and reunite with South Korea.</p><p>• Russia will weaken, losing population and economic dynamism (the novel was written before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine).</p><p>• Islamist fundamentalists will detonate several radiological bombs (explosives that disperse radioactive material); and they will also blow up nuclear plants.</p><p>• Despite the Paris Agreement and other efforts to combat climate change, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will continue to rise, and sea levels will continue to rise. More natural disasters due to climate change will occur, and several cities and areas of the planet will be flooded.</p><p>• Global artificial intelligence systems will gain consciousness.</p><p>• The Republican Party in the US will collapse, as the proportion of the US population that is Latino, Asian, or black increases (and as the position of young white people changes as well). A party further to the left of the Democratic Party will eventually emerge.</p><p>• In Europe, on the other hand, there will be an ascendancy of far-right, anti-Islamic, xenophobic and racist parties; and greater political fragmentation.</p><p>• Collapse of agriculture, pollination, loss of drinking water sources.</p><p>• Nuclear proliferation.</p><p>• The Israeli government will decide to decentralize the Jewish population to other regions.</p><p>My novel tries to be a call to action to avoid being affected by these new horsemen of the Apocalypse. It is available on Amazon (in print and on Kindle):</p><p><a href="https://www.amazon.es/Last-Human-English-Luis-Fierro-ebook/dp/B09D45JFK8">https://www.amazon.es/Last-Human-English-Luis-Fierro-ebook/dp/B09D45JFK8</a></p><p><br /></p><p>(*) A shorter version of this column appeared in Spanish in Diario "El Universo" on August 19, 2022.</p><p><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/predicciones-de-wired-y-mias-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/predicciones-de-wired-y-mias-nota/</a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-VlIWNgUWuQNjLRiW-a2pe1BmOBP3fVbapMX-uLWP8gWZ76EmyhRpQt4BqjBN7MvNy3TvCIK6wrvUMaig1VkwA23PL2b6G4d4A0TdTMGtrhJ4pEgD8XA5z7vP-HSQBkuZ1kBVRRHYGr7Hyl4elDv1trRrHQKmqooQB6Dvo1oBKURAvSZSVCIQMphhag/s2048/El%20Ultimo%20Humano.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1298" data-original-width="2048" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-VlIWNgUWuQNjLRiW-a2pe1BmOBP3fVbapMX-uLWP8gWZ76EmyhRpQt4BqjBN7MvNy3TvCIK6wrvUMaig1VkwA23PL2b6G4d4A0TdTMGtrhJ4pEgD8XA5z7vP-HSQBkuZ1kBVRRHYGr7Hyl4elDv1trRrHQKmqooQB6Dvo1oBKURAvSZSVCIQMphhag/w640-h406/El%20Ultimo%20Humano.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-75184446480185418202022-08-21T08:38:00.008-07:002022-08-21T08:38:53.266-07:00Predicciones de “Wired” (y mías)<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Por Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En julio de 1997, la revista “Wired” publicó un artículo más bien
optimista que predecía un largo “boom” de prosperidad, libertad y mejoras
ambientales en los siguientes 25 años (hasta 2022).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No obstante, para moderar un poco dicho
optimismo, también publicó un recuadro sobre problemas que podrían surgir y
afectar adversamente este “boom”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Algunas de dichas predicciones negativas se han cumplido casi al pie de
la letra:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">“Las
tensiones entre China y EE. UU. se intensifican hasta convertirse en una nueva
Guerra Fría — al borde de una guerra caliente.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">“Rusia
se convierte en una cleptocracia dirigida por una mafia o se repliega en un nacionalismo
casi comunista que amenaza a Europa.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">“Una
gran crisis ecológica provoca un cambio climático global que, entre otras
cosas, interrumpe el suministro de alimentos — causando grandes aumentos de
precios en todas partes y hambrunas esporádicas.”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Otras se han cumplido parcialmente, por ejemplo<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">“Una
plaga incontrolable — una epidemia de influenza moderna o su equivalente se
propaga como un reguero de pólvora y mata a más de 200 millones de personas”.
Se estima que la pandemia de COVID-19 ha causado la muerte de unas 20 millones
de personas hasta la fecha.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En
la cuarta predicción, decía que “El proceso de integración de Europa se
paraliza. Europa oriental y occidental no pueden lograr una reunificación”. Si
bien el Reino Unido salió de la Unión Europea mediante el Brexit, desde 1997 el
número de Estados Miembros de la Unión Europea ha aumentado de 15 a 27 (con la
inclusión de varios países de Europa central y oriental), y hay 10 países
adicionales que desean ingresar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Un
aumento del crimen y del terrorismo.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Otras predicciones fallaron, por ejemplo, que las nuevas tecnologías no
lleven aparejadas un aumento de la productividad.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En mi novela de ciencia ficción “El Último Humano”, hago algunas
predicciones hasta 2064. Sin entrar en demasiados “spoilers”, algunas son:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Se
colapsará la monarquía saudita y se establecerá una república islámica.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Tanto
China como Cuba transitarán hacia democracias multipartidistas, aunque todavía
con predominio de un partido “socialista democrático”; mientras que el gobierno
de Corea del Norte implosionará y se reunificará con Corea del Sur.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Rusia
se debilitará, al perder población y dinamismo económico (la novela fue escrita
antes de la invasión a Ucrania).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Los
fundamentalistas islamistas detonarán varias bombas radiológicas (explosivos
que dispersan material radioactivo); y también harán explotar plantas
nucleares.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Pese
al Acuerdo de París y los esfuerzos por combatir el cambio climático, la
concentración de dióxido de carbono en la atmósfera seguirá aumentando, y seguirá
subiendo el nivel del mar. Se producirán más desastres naturales derivados del
cambio climático, y se inundarán varias ciudades y zonas del planeta.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Los
sistemas de inteligencia artificial globales adquirirán consciencia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El
Partido Republicano en EE.UU. se colapsará, al aumentar la proporción de la
población de EE.UU. latina, asiática o afro-descendiente (y al cambiar también
la posición de los jóvenes blancos). Eventualmente surgirá un partido más a la izquierda
del Partido Demócrata.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En
Europa, en cambio, habrá una ascendencia de partidos de extrema derecha, anti-islámicos,
xenofóbicos y racistas; y un mayor fraccionamiento político.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Colapso
de la agricultura, de la polinización, pérdida de fuentes de agua potable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">La
proliferación nuclear.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: 115%; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -.25in;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: Symbol; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"> ·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El
gobierno israelí decidirá descentralizar la población judía hacia otras
regiones.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Mi novela intenta ser un llamado a la acción para evitar que nos afecten
estos nuevos jinetes del Apocalipsis. Está disponible en Amazon (impresa y en
Kindle):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/%C3%BAltimo-humano-Spanish-Fierro-Carri%C3%B3n-ebook/dp/B09DTHBQYJ">https://www.amazon.com/%C3%BAltimo-humano-Spanish-Fierro-Carri%C3%B3n-ebook/dp/B09DTHBQYJ</a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">(*) Una versión más corta de esta columna fue publicada el 19 de agosto en el Diario "El Universo" de Ecuador.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh_AZqZyTElQB0J7lo-M4emYqz3T4yonTZK8Wsd4iHmN-B19VUCFsHKLfJp9ZcnulIVMWDf7O_56IFIOdeeQJi5QUqaHrdgAuk0m3DIx0hWfCXoc2Dl5CG9Un20e-ROGXh24nGniFBiaocZTMYHO_Nl4kNWPgTaqFU-UAVO6vue6CvYLPiqjDuTxelxQ/s2048/El%20Ultimo%20Humano.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1298" data-original-width="2048" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhh_AZqZyTElQB0J7lo-M4emYqz3T4yonTZK8Wsd4iHmN-B19VUCFsHKLfJp9ZcnulIVMWDf7O_56IFIOdeeQJi5QUqaHrdgAuk0m3DIx0hWfCXoc2Dl5CG9Un20e-ROGXh24nGniFBiaocZTMYHO_Nl4kNWPgTaqFU-UAVO6vue6CvYLPiqjDuTxelxQ/w640-h406/El%20Ultimo%20Humano.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-38699641179185760012022-08-03T00:53:00.002-07:002022-08-03T01:02:05.743-07:00China, Taiwan and the USA<p>By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)</p><p>Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C</p><p>The visit of the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan has raised a hornet's nest.</p><p>The People's Republic of China (PRC) has criticized the visit, has warned that the US is "playing with fire", and has launched a series of "military exercises" in the strait that separates Taiwan from mainland China.</p><p>China's communist government seized power in a revolution that culminated in 1949. Leading the victorious Chinese Communist Party was Mao Zedong, who waged a civil war against the nationalist Kuomintang government led by <i>Generalissimo</i> Chiang Kai-shek. The nationalist army took refuge on the island of Taiwan, where it maintained a dictatorial regime until the 1990s, when a multiparty democracy was established.</p><p>The "Republic of China" (official name of the island) maintained the representation of China in the United Nations until 1971, when the UN recognized the PRC instead. Gradually, the countries that recognized Taiwan dwindled, down to 14. It participates unofficially in entities such as the World Trade Organization, the Asian Development Bank and the International Olympic Committee (as "China Taipei").</p><p>The US established an alliance with Taiwan, and was in a <i>de facto</i> war against Chinese "volunteers" during the Korean War (following North Korea's invasion of South Korea), between 1950 and 1953.</p><p>China attacked some of the Taiwanese islands closest to the mainland with artillery fire in 1958, but failed to take control of any territory.</p><p>In 1979, the US changed its recognition to the PRC as well, and signed a "One China Policy." However, it maintained a "strategic ambiguity" as to whether it would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. The US also signed the "Taiwan Relations Act", which stated that it was its expectation that the future of Taiwan would be defined in a peaceful manner, and that it would sell weapons to Taiwan so that it could defend itself.</p><p>During his government, Trump spoke by phone with the President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen (of the Democratic Progressive Party, which seeks greater sovereignty), promoted the visit of officials and the sale of weapons.</p><p>President Biden, in erratic statements, said that the US would intervene in defense of Taiwan (violating the notion of “strategic ambiguity”), although he later confirmed to President Xi that the US would not support a change in the <i>status quo</i> or unilateral actions.</p><p>All this occurs in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. China is looking into the sanctions imposed on Russia, which have severely affected the Russian economy. However, given the close economic integration between China and the West, it would be difficult to establish similar sanctions against China.</p><p>The economist Noah Smith established a comparison between the "Western" alliance (NATO plus Japan) against a potential Sino-Russian axis, and concluded that it would be the most even conflict between alliances, in economic terms, industrial capacity and military force (<a href="https: //noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy-sizing-up-the-new">https: //noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy-sizing-up-the-new</a>). A worrying factor is that China concentrates the mineral processing capacity that is key to the new technologies: copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths.</p><p>A direct conflict would be unthinkable because they are nuclear powers.</p><p><br /></p><p>(*) Translation of my column published in Diario "El Universo" on August 2, 2022.</p><p><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/china-taiwan-y-ee-uu-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/china-taiwan-y-ee-uu-nota/</a></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0kRzbIGT0cV29wqAUW09YrmclGIhj_bcjdvTUB2ktKMAGcayVoAPXhybkj5_fG8KbE0y_A-yxpwjA_6gUJye1O1IEPtbcyZUY0HtuYj5iCPceXJTPURTempKP3TttZdPXYIlZpqZV5gFGneWKjTnhk46OPiknzhShAIdMxUlXO-6R684BczeaZBWdSQ/s2048/Nancy%20Pelosi%20Taiwan.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0kRzbIGT0cV29wqAUW09YrmclGIhj_bcjdvTUB2ktKMAGcayVoAPXhybkj5_fG8KbE0y_A-yxpwjA_6gUJye1O1IEPtbcyZUY0HtuYj5iCPceXJTPURTempKP3TttZdPXYIlZpqZV5gFGneWKjTnhk46OPiknzhShAIdMxUlXO-6R684BczeaZBWdSQ/w400-h225/Nancy%20Pelosi%20Taiwan.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-299993106614431474.post-69837854439177539872022-08-03T00:43:00.003-07:002022-08-03T00:57:42.993-07:00China, Taiwán y EE.UU. <p> <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">Por Luis Fierro Carrión (*)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">La visita de la Presidenta (Speaker) de la Cámara de Representantes de Estados
Unidos, Nancy Pelosi, a Taiwán ha levantado un avispero.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">La República Popular China (RPCh) ha criticado la visita, ha advertido
que EE.UU. está “jugando con fuego”, y ha iniciado una serie de “ejercicios
militares” en el estrecho que separa a Taiwán de China continental.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El gobierno comunista de la China tomó el poder en una revolución que
culminó en 1949. Al mando del victorioso Partido Comunista de China estaba Mao
Zedong, quien libró una guerra civil contra el gobierno nacionalista del
Kuomintang, liderado por el <i>generalísimo</i> Chiang Kai-shek. El ejercito
nacionalista se refugió en la isla de Taiwán, en donde mantuvo un régimen
dictatorial hasta los años 90, cuando se estableció una democracia multipartidista.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">La “República de China” (nombre oficial de la isla) mantuvo la
representación de la China en Naciones Unidas hasta 1971, cuando la ONU
reconoció en su lugar a la RPCh. Gradualmente, los países que reconocían a Taiwán
fueron menguando, hasta disminuir a 14. Participa de manera no oficial en
entidades como la OMC, el Banco Asiático de Desarrollo y el Comité Olímpico Internacional (como "China Taipei").<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">EE.UU. estableció una alianza con Taiwán, y estuvo <i>de facto</i> en
una guerra contra “voluntarios” chinos durante la guerra de Corea (tras la
invasión de Corea del Norte a Corea del Sur), entre 1950 y 1953.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">China atacó con fuego de artillería en 1958 a algunas de las islas
taiwanesas más próximas al continente, pero no logró tomar control de ningún territorio.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">En 1979, EE.UU. cambió su reconocimiento también de Taiwán a la RPCh, y suscribió
una “Política de Una China”. No obstante, mantenía una “ambigüedad estratégica”
con respecto a si defendería a Taiwán en caso de un ataque chino. EE.UU.
también suscribió el “Acta de Relaciones con Taiwán”, que establecía que era su
expectativa que el futuro de Taiwán se definiría de manera pacífica, y que vendería armas a Taiwán para que pueda defenderse.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Durante su gobierno, Trump habló por teléfono con la Presidenta de Taiwán,
Tsai Ing-wen (del Partido Democrático Progresista, que busca una mayor soberanía),
promovió la visita de funcionarios y la venta de armas.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El Presidente Biden en unas declaraciones erráticas dijo que EE.UU.
intervendría en defensa de Taiwán (violando la “ambigüedad estratégica”), aunque
luego ratificó al Presidente Xi que EE.UU. no apoyaría un cambio del <i>status
quo</i> ni acciones unilaterales.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Todo esto se da en el contexto de la invasión rusa a Ucrania. China está
analizando las sanciones impuestas a Rusia, que han afectado severamente a la
economía rusa. No obstante, dada la estrecha integración económica entre China
y Occidente, sería difícil establecer sanciones similares contra China (dado que podrían resultar contraproducentes).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">El economista Noah Smith establecía una comparación entre la alianza
“occidental” (OTAN más Japón) contra un potencial eje chino-ruso, y concluía
que sería el conflicto más parejo entre alianzas, en términos económicos, de
capacidad industrial y fuerza militar (</span><a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy-sizing-up-the-new"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy-sizing-up-the-new</span></a><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">). Un factor preocupante es que China concentra la
capacidad de procesamiento de minerales que son claves para nuevas tecnologías:
cobre, litio, níquel, cobalto y “tierras raras”.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">Un conflicto directo seria también impensable por tratarse de potencias
nucleares.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="ES-EC" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: ES-EC;">(*) Una versión más corta de esta columna fue publicada el 2 de agosto, 2022, en el Diario "El Universo"</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/china-taiwan-y-ee-uu-nota/">https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/china-taiwan-y-ee-uu-nota/</a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQwNbCvFFCXOrpbF3HgPvODD5z_QIsx2HZ_jBXYs21vhvO-H7BsWDWDzMo1cqHDnZPcbrTaxkDjXCC3H2IEq5ibVovABBkO6CnqZJuukUal9dfcvEloKj-yEg2fQuSghubgfvozLyJNrzIU4bNOlxRLd5BhlM_bE_m0UTERu-CMghqTXjBWECATPJ35g/s2048/Nancy%20Pelosi%20Taiwan.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQwNbCvFFCXOrpbF3HgPvODD5z_QIsx2HZ_jBXYs21vhvO-H7BsWDWDzMo1cqHDnZPcbrTaxkDjXCC3H2IEq5ibVovABBkO6CnqZJuukUal9dfcvEloKj-yEg2fQuSghubgfvozLyJNrzIU4bNOlxRLd5BhlM_bE_m0UTERu-CMghqTXjBWECATPJ35g/w640-h360/Nancy%20Pelosi%20Taiwan.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></p>Luis Fierrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03830008088932290673noreply@blogger.com0