By Luis Fierro Carrion (*)
Twitter: @Luis_Fierro_C
In July 1997, "Wired" magazine published a rather optimistic article predicting a long "boom" of prosperity, freedom, and environmental improvements in the next 25 years (until 2022).
However, to temper such optimism a bit, it also published a sidebar on problems that could arise and adversely affect this boom.
Some of these negative predictions have been fulfilled almost to the letter:
• “Tensions between China and the US escalate into a new Cold War — bordering on a hot one.”
• “Russia devolves into a kleptocracy run by a mafia or retreats into quasi-communist nationalism that threatens Europe"
• “Major ecological crisis causes a global climate change that among other things, disrupts the food supply - causing big price increases everywhere and sporadic famines".
Others have been partially fulfilled, for example
• “An uncontrollable plague - a modern-day influenza epidemic or its equivalent - takes off like wildfire, killing upward of 200 million people". The COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to have killed 20 million people to date.
• “Europe's integration process grinds to a halt. Eastern and Western Europe can't finesse a reunification". Although the United Kingdom left the European Union through Brexit, since 1997 the number of Member States of the European Union has increased from 15 to 27 (including several Central and Eastern European countries), with an additional 10 countries waiting to enter.
• An increase in crime and terrorism.
Other predictions failed, for example, that new technologies would not bring about an increase in productivity.
In my science fiction novel "The Last Human", I make some predictions until 2064.
Without going into too many "spoilers", some of these are:
• The Saudi autocracy will collapse and an Islamic republic will be established.
• Both China and Cuba will move towards multi-party democracies, although still with a predominance of a “democratic socialist” party; while the North Korean government will implode and reunite with South Korea.
• Russia will weaken, losing population and economic dynamism (the novel was written before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine).
• Islamist fundamentalists will detonate several radiological bombs (explosives that disperse radioactive material); and they will also blow up nuclear plants.
• Despite the Paris Agreement and other efforts to combat climate change, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will continue to rise, and sea levels will continue to rise. More natural disasters due to climate change will occur, and several cities and areas of the planet will be flooded.
• Global artificial intelligence systems will gain consciousness.
• The Republican Party in the US will collapse, as the proportion of the US population that is Latino, Asian, or black increases (and as the position of young white people changes as well). A party further to the left of the Democratic Party will eventually emerge.
• In Europe, on the other hand, there will be an ascendancy of far-right, anti-Islamic, xenophobic and racist parties; and greater political fragmentation.
• Collapse of agriculture, pollination, loss of drinking water sources.
• Nuclear proliferation.
• The Israeli government will decide to decentralize the Jewish population to other regions.
My novel tries to be a call to action to avoid being affected by these new horsemen of the Apocalypse. It is available on Amazon (in print and on Kindle):
https://www.amazon.es/Last-Human-English-Luis-Fierro-ebook/dp/B09D45JFK8
(*) A shorter version of this column appeared in Spanish in Diario "El Universo" on August 19, 2022.
https://www.eluniverso.com/opinion/columnistas/predicciones-de-wired-y-mias-nota/
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